Will USA advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives USA a 65.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can USA win the 2026 World Cup?

USA has a 1.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 55, Defense: 46, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is USA's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

USA has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 55, Defense 46, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football.

Who are USA's star players at World Cup 2026?

USA's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Freeman (Defender, OPR 72, OPR 72); R. Pepi (Attacker, OPR 70, 19G 4A (1857min)); S. Berhalter (Midfielder, OPR 69, 7G 5A (1813min)); C. Richards (Defender, OPR 69, 3G 0A (4807min)); C. Pulišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 12G 6A (2152min)).

How strong is USA's squad for World Cup 2026?

USA's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.4, Midfield control 54.4, Defensive solidity 46.3, GK rating 82.7. Lambda attack 1.39, lambda defense 0.93. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 84. Top scorer: R. Pepi (19 goals).

USA — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53Overall

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

26Squad Size

25.9Avg Age

60.9Avg OVR

84.0Depth Score

53Overall

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

26Squad Size

25.9Avg Age

60.9Avg OVR

84.0Depth Score

Star Players

A. Freeman

Defender

OPR 72

R. Pepi

Attacker

19G 4A (1857min)

S. Berhalter

Midfielder

7G 5A (1813min)

C. Richards

Defender

3G 0A (4807min)

C. Pulišić

Attacker

12G 6A (2152min)

Tournament Probability

1.1%ChampionChampion

1.1%

65.2%Advance from GroupAdvance from Group

65.2%

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

Curaçao

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Haiti

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Africa

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Iraq

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Uzbekistan

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

Egypt

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

Qatar

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Tunisia

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Ghana

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Australia

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

New Zealand

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Panama

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Mexico

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Jordan

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Algeria

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Canada

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Paraguay

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Congo DR

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Ecuador

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Norway

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Scotland

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Japan

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Morocco

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Switzerland

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Austria

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Sweden

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Senegal

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Uruguay

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Croatia

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Türkiye

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

Netherlands

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Brazil

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Argentina

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Spain

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Germany

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Portugal

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

England

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

France

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

Curaçao

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Haiti

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Africa

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Iraq

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Uzbekistan

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

Egypt

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

Qatar

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Tunisia

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Ghana

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Australia

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

New Zealand

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Panama

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Mexico

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Jordan

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Algeria

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Canada

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Paraguay

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Congo DR

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Ecuador

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Norway

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Scotland

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Japan

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Morocco

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Switzerland

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Austria

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Sweden

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Senegal

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Uruguay

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Croatia

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Türkiye

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

Netherlands

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Brazil

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Argentina

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Spain

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Germany

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Portugal

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

England

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

France

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

USA

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay

USA

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay