Will Canada advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives Canada a 79.8% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can Canada win the 2026 World Cup?

Canada has a 0.4% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 47/100 (Attack: 49, Midfield: 50, Defense: 43, Goalkeeping: 45).

What is Canada's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

Canada has an AI-generated overall rating of 47/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 49, Midfield 50, Defense 43, Goalkeeping 45. Playing style: Balanced.

Who are Canada's star players at World Cup 2026?

Canada's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Davies (Defender, OPR 67, 1G 6A (1468min)); T. Oluwaseyi (Attacker, OPR 66, 8G 5A (1904min)); A. Johnston (Defender, OPR 65, OPR 65); C. Larin (Attacker, OPR 64, 10G 2A (2106min)); A. Ahmed (Midfielder, OPR 63, 4G 4A (1607min)).

What are Canada's strengths and weaknesses?

Weaknesses: Uncertain goalkeeper. Squad depth score: 81.0, average age: 26.1.

How strong is Canada's squad for World Cup 2026?

Canada's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 49.2, Midfield control 49.1, Defensive solidity 42.2, GK rating 70.9. Lambda attack 1.29, lambda defense 1.13. Chemistry score 39, squad depth 81. Top scorer: C. Larin (10 goals).

Canada — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 47/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

47Overall

Balanced

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

25Squad Size

26.1Avg Age

55.3Avg OVR

81.0Depth Score

47Overall

Balanced

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

25Squad Size

26.1Avg Age

55.3Avg OVR

81.0Depth Score

Star Players

A. Davies

Defender

1G 6A (1468min)

T. Oluwaseyi

Attacker

8G 5A (1904min)

A. Johnston

Defender

OPR 65

C. Larin

Attacker

10G 2A (2106min)

A. Ahmed

Midfielder

4G 4A (1607min)

Tournament Probability

0.4%ChampionChampion

0.4%

79.8%Advance from GroupAdvance from Group

79.8%

Weaknesses

Uncertain goalkeeper

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.29

λ Attack

1.13

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.5

Star Gap

26.1

Avg Age

Top Scorer

C. Larin

10 goals

Best Rated

N. Sigur

7.16

Club Clusters

Los Angeles FC (3)Villarreal (2)Toronto FC (2)

WC Experience

Appearances2

Best FinishGroup Stage

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season1,689

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %44%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs19

Same-Club Pairs5

Same-League76

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

South Africa

1-0▼

50%

26%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Iraq

1-0▼

50%

26%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Haiti

0-1▼

50%

27%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

South Korea

0-1▼

50%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Iran

0-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Curaçao

0-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Uzbekistan

1-0▼

48%

27%

24%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 43%BTTS 47%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Egypt

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 58%

Qatar

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Tunisia

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Ghana

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Australia

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Jordan

1-1▼

40%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Panama

1-1▼

40%

27%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Mexico

1-1▼

39%

25%

36%

xG 1.5 – 1.4O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

New Zealand

1-1▼

39%

25%

36%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Algeria

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.5 – 1.4O2.5 55%BTTS 58%

Norway

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Scotland

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Paraguay

1-1▼

37%

25%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

37%

25%

38%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 52%BTTS 56%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

Ecuador

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Congo DR

1-1▼

37%

27%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Morocco

1-1▼

36%

26%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

USA

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Switzerland

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Sweden

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

35%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Japan

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Austria

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Uruguay

1-1▼

32%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Croatia

1-1▼

32%

25%

42%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Senegal

1-1▼

32%

25%

43%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Netherlands

1-1▼

32%

25%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

Türkiye

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Brazil

1-1▼

31%

26%

43%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 56%

Spain

1-1▼

31%

24%

45%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 54%

Argentina

1-1▼

31%

25%

43%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Germany

1-1▼

30%

25%

45%

xG 1.2 – 1.6O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Portugal

1-1▼

29%

26%

45%

xG 1.1 – 1.5O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

England

1-1▼

28%

25%

46%

xG 1.2 – 1.6O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

France

1-1▼

28%

25%

47%

xG 1.1 – 1.6O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Host ×2

▼3

Travel ×1.5

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×1.75

▼2

Host ×1.5

▼2

Host ×3

▼2

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Travel ×1.25

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Heat ×0

▲1

Heat ×0.5

▲1

Heat ×1.25

▲1

Heat ×1.5

▲1

Heat ×2

▲1

Heat ×2.5

▲1

Heat ×3

▲1

Heat ×0.25

▲1

Heat ×1.75

▲1

Altitude ×0

▲1

Altitude ×0.5

▲1

Altitude ×0.75

▲1

Altitude ×1.5

▲1

Altitude ×2

▲1

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Altitude ×3

▲1

Altitude ×0.25

▲1

Altitude ×1.75

▲1

Travel ×0.75

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▲1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▲1

Spread 1

▲1

Spread 1.5

▲1

Spread 2.1

▲1

Spread 2.5

▲1

Spread 3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.7

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Uplift 1.15

▲1

Travel ×0

#10

▲2

Travel ×0.5

#10

▲2

Travel ×0.25

#10

▲2

Host ×0

#10

▲2

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

#10

▲2

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

#10

▲2

Baseline: #8·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #8

heat

10 scenarios · #8–#9

altitude

10 scenarios · #8–#9

travel

10 scenarios · #6–#10

host

5 scenarios · #5–#10

mismatch

5 scenarios · #8–#10

spread

5 scenarios · #9

penalty

3 scenarios · #9

uplift

2 scenarios · #9

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.29

λ Attack

1.13

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.5

Star Gap

26.1

Avg Age

Top Scorer

C. Larin

10 goals

Best Rated

N. Sigur

7.16

Club Clusters

Los Angeles FC (3)Villarreal (2)Toronto FC (2)

WC Experience

Appearances2

Best FinishGroup Stage

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season1,689

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %44%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs19

Same-Club Pairs5

Same-League76

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

South Africa

1-0▼

50%

26%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Iraq

1-0▼

50%

26%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Haiti

0-1▼

50%

27%

24%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

South Korea

0-1▼

50%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Iran

0-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Curaçao

0-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 44%BTTS 48%

Uzbekistan

1-0▼

48%

27%

24%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 43%BTTS 47%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Egypt

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 58%

Qatar

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Tunisia

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Ghana

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Australia

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Jordan

1-1▼

40%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Panama

1-1▼

40%

27%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Mexico

1-1▼

39%

25%

36%

xG 1.5 – 1.4O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

New Zealand

1-1▼

39%

25%

36%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Algeria

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.5 – 1.4O2.5 55%BTTS 58%

Norway

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Scotland

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Paraguay

1-1▼

37%

25%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

37%

25%

38%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 52%BTTS 56%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

Ecuador

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Congo DR

1-1▼

37%

27%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Morocco

1-1▼

36%

26%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

USA

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Switzerland

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Sweden

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

35%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Japan

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Austria

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Uruguay

1-1▼

32%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Croatia

1-1▼

32%

25%

42%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Senegal

1-1▼

32%

25%

43%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Netherlands

1-1▼

32%

25%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

Türkiye

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Brazil

1-1▼

31%

26%

43%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 56%

Spain

1-1▼

31%

24%

45%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 52%BTTS 54%

Argentina

1-1▼

31%

25%

43%

xG 1.3 – 1.5O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Germany

1-1▼

30%

25%

45%

xG 1.2 – 1.6O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Portugal

1-1▼

29%

26%

45%

xG 1.1 – 1.5O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

England

1-1▼

28%

25%

46%

xG 1.2 – 1.6O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

France

1-1▼

28%

25%

47%

xG 1.1 – 1.6O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Host ×2

▼3

Travel ×1.5

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×1.75

▼2

Host ×1.5

▼2

Host ×3

▼2

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Travel ×1.25

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Heat ×0

▲1

Heat ×0.5

▲1

Heat ×1.25

▲1

Heat ×1.5

▲1

Heat ×2

▲1

Heat ×2.5

▲1

Heat ×3

▲1

Heat ×0.25

▲1

Heat ×1.75

▲1

Altitude ×0

▲1

Altitude ×0.5

▲1

Altitude ×0.75

▲1

Altitude ×1.5

▲1

Altitude ×2

▲1

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Altitude ×3

▲1

Altitude ×0.25

▲1

Altitude ×1.75

▲1

Travel ×0.75

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▲1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▲1

Spread 1

▲1

Spread 1.5

▲1

Spread 2.1

▲1

Spread 2.5

▲1

Spread 3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.7

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Uplift 1.15

▲1

Travel ×0

#10

▲2

Travel ×0.5

#10

▲2

Travel ×0.25

#10

▲2

Host ×0

#10

▲2

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

#10

▲2

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

#10

▲2

Baseline: #8·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #8

heat

10 scenarios · #8–#9

altitude

10 scenarios · #8–#9

travel

10 scenarios · #6–#10

host

5 scenarios · #5–#10

mismatch

5 scenarios · #8–#10

spread

5 scenarios · #9

penalty

3 scenarios · #9

uplift

2 scenarios · #9

Canada

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Weaknesses

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay

Canada

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Weaknesses

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay