Will Türkiye advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives Türkiye a 78.7% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can Türkiye win the 2026 World Cup?

Türkiye has a 2.3% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 54/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 57, Defense: 47, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is Türkiye's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

Türkiye has an AI-generated overall rating of 54/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 57, Defense 47, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football, Well-drilled unit.

Who are Türkiye's star players at World Cup 2026?

Türkiye's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Güler (Midfielder, OPR 74, 8G 18A (4055min)); H. Çalhanoğlu (Midfielder, OPR 73, 13G 9A (2582min)); U. Çakır (Goalkeeper, OPR 67, OPR 67); Ç. Söyüncü (Defender, OPR 67, OPR 67); M. Müldür (Defender, OPR 67, 2G 2A (2413min)).

What are Türkiye's strengths and weaknesses?

Strengths: Strong team chemistry, Deep squad rotation. Squad depth score: 88.0, average age: 26.7.

What is Türkiye's full tournament path prediction for World Cup 2026?

Türkiye's tournament path probabilities: Group stage 79.6%, Round of 32 79.6%, Round of 16 43.0%, Quarter-finals 22.3%, Semi-finals 12.0%, Final 5.9%, Champion 2.8%. Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

How strong is Türkiye's squad for World Cup 2026?

Türkiye's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.3, Midfield control 57.3, Defensive solidity 47.3, GK rating 61.6. Lambda attack 1.65, lambda defense 1.07. Chemistry score 97, squad depth 88. Top scorer: K. Aktürkoğlu (15 goals).

Türkiye — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 54/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

54Overall

Possession-basedTotal footballWell-drilled unit

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

26Squad Size

26.7Avg Age

62.7Avg OVR

88.0Depth Score

54Overall

Possession-basedTotal footballWell-drilled unit

⚡Attack

⚙️Midfield

🛡️Defense

🧤Goalkeeping

26Squad Size

26.7Avg Age

62.7Avg OVR

88.0Depth Score

Star Players

A. Güler

Midfielder

8G 18A (4055min)

H. Çalhanoğlu

Midfielder

13G 9A (2582min)

U. Çakır

Goalkeeper

OPR 67

Ç. Söyüncü

Defender

OPR 67

M. Müldür

Defender

2G 2A (2413min)

Tournament Probability

2.3%ChampionChampion

2.3%

78.7%Advance from GroupAdvance from Group

78.7%

Strengths

Strong team chemistry

Deep squad rotation

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Tournament Path Forecast

79.6%

Group

79.6%

R32

43.0%

R16

22.3%

12.0%

5.9%

Final

2.8%

Champion

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.65

λ Attack

1.07

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

7.2

Star Gap

26.7

Avg Age

Top Scorer

K. Aktürkoğlu

15 goals

Best Rated

O. Kökçü

7.57

Club Clusters

Galatasaray (6)Fenerbahçe (6)

WC Experience

Appearances2

Best Finish3rd 2002

Last WC2002

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,347

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %0%

Cooperation

Score70/100

Total Clubs16

Same-Club Pairs30

Same-League148

Excellent — strong club connections

H2H Matchup Predictions(48)

WinDrawLoss

Iraq

0-1▼

55%

25%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Curaçao

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

South Korea

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

Iran

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 52%BTTS 53%

Haiti

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Uzbekistan

0-1▼

54%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Africa

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

Qatar

1-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.6 – 1.0O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Ghana

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

Egypt

1-1▼

50%

24%

26%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 54%BTTS 56%

Tunisia

1-1▼

50%

25%

xG 1.6 – 1.0O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Jordan

1-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 46%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

Panama

1-1▼

48%

27%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 45%BTTS 49%

Scotland

1-1▼

48%

24%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 52%BTTS 54%

Ecuador

1-1▼

47%

26%

27%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 50%

Norway

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

Canada

1-1▼

46%

24%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 55%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Morocco

1-1▼

45%

27%

28%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Australia

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

USA

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Paraguay

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 51%

Mexico

1-1▼

44%

25%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

New Zealand

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Sweden

1-1▼

44%

25%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Switzerland

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Algeria

1-1▼

44%

25%

32%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 55%BTTS 58%

Congo DR

1-1▼

42%

27%

31%

xG 1.3 – 1.1O2.5 43%BTTS 49%

Japan

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Türkiye

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Uruguay

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Senegal

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Netherlands

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Croatia

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Brazil

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Austria

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Spain

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Argentina

1-1▼

39%

27%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Germany

1-1▼

39%

27%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

England

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Portugal

1-1▼

35%

27%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

France

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×0.5

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×0.25

▼1

Altitude ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Penalty rand=0.3

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×1.5

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×3

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×2

—

Altitude ×3

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Spread 1

—

Spread 2.1

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Heat ×0

▲1

Heat ×0.5

▲1

Heat ×2

▲1

Altitude ×0

▲1

Altitude ×0.5

▲1

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Altitude ×0.25

▲1

Altitude ×1.75

▲1

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▲1

Spread 1.5

▲1

Spread 3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.7

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×0.75

▲2

Altitude ×1.25

▲2

Travel ×1.5

▲2

Travel ×2

▲2

Travel ×2.5

▲2

Travel ×3

▲2

Travel ×1.75

▲2

Host ×1.5

▲2

Host ×2

▲2

Host ×3

▲2

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #7·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #7

heat

10 scenarios · #6–#9

altitude

10 scenarios · #6–#9

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#9

host

5 scenarios · #5–#9

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#9

spread

5 scenarios · #6–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #6–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #7–#8

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.65

λ Attack

1.07

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

7.2

Star Gap

26.7

Avg Age

Top Scorer

K. Aktürkoğlu

15 goals

Best Rated

O. Kökçü

7.57

Club Clusters

Galatasaray (6)Fenerbahçe (6)

WC Experience

Appearances2

Best Finish3rd 2002

Last WC2002

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,347

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %0%

Cooperation

Score70/100

Total Clubs16

Same-Club Pairs30

Same-League148

Excellent — strong club connections

H2H Matchup Predictions(48)

WinDrawLoss

Iraq

0-1▼

55%

25%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Curaçao

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

South Korea

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

Iran

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 52%BTTS 53%

Haiti

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Uzbekistan

0-1▼

54%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Africa

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

Qatar

1-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.6 – 1.0O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Ghana

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

Egypt

1-1▼

50%

24%

26%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 54%BTTS 56%

Tunisia

1-1▼

50%

25%

xG 1.6 – 1.0O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Jordan

1-1▼

49%

26%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 46%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

Panama

1-1▼

48%

27%

25%

xG 1.5 – 1.0O2.5 45%BTTS 49%

Scotland

1-1▼

48%

24%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 52%BTTS 54%

Ecuador

1-1▼

47%

26%

27%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 50%

Norway

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

Canada

1-1▼

46%

24%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 55%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Morocco

1-1▼

45%

27%

28%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Australia

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

USA

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Colombia

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Paraguay

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 47%BTTS 51%

Mexico

1-1▼

44%

25%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

New Zealand

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Sweden

1-1▼

44%

25%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Switzerland

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Saudi Arabia

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Algeria

1-1▼

44%

25%

32%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 55%BTTS 58%

Congo DR

1-1▼

42%

27%

31%

xG 1.3 – 1.1O2.5 43%BTTS 49%

Japan

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Türkiye

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Belgium

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Uruguay

1-1▼

41%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Senegal

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Netherlands

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Croatia

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Brazil

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Austria

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Spain

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

Argentina

1-1▼

39%

27%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Germany

1-1▼

39%

27%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

England

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Portugal

1-1▼

35%

27%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

France

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×0.5

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×0.25

▼1

Altitude ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Penalty rand=0.3

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×1.5

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×3

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×2

—

Altitude ×3

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Spread 1

—

Spread 2.1

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Heat ×0

▲1

Heat ×0.5

▲1

Heat ×2

▲1

Altitude ×0

▲1

Altitude ×0.5

▲1

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Altitude ×0.25

▲1

Altitude ×1.75

▲1

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▲1

Spread 1.5

▲1

Spread 3

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.7

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×0.75

▲2

Altitude ×1.25

▲2

Travel ×1.5

▲2

Travel ×2

▲2

Travel ×2.5

▲2

Travel ×3

▲2

Travel ×1.75

▲2

Host ×1.5

▲2

Host ×2

▲2

Host ×3

▲2

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #7·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #7

heat

10 scenarios · #6–#9

altitude

10 scenarios · #6–#9

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#9

host

5 scenarios · #5–#9

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#9

spread

5 scenarios · #6–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #6–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #7–#8

Turkiye

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Strengths

Manager & Tactical Profile

Tournament Path Forecast

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(48)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay

Turkiye

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Star Players

Tournament Probability

Strengths

Manager & Tactical Profile

Tournament Path Forecast

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(48)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay