## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Manchester United 1–2 Leeds 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 model gave Manchester United a 53.2% win probability, driven by a significantly stronger attacking profile (λ=1.78 vs Leeds' 0.96) and projected expected goals of 1.83 vs 0.97. The most likely predicted score was 1-0 to the home side, with over 2.5 goals carrying a 53.7% probability. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Leeds won 1-2 at Old Trafford, defying the model's clear favorite call. Three goals were scored in total, and the away side converted against the run of expectation. ✅ **Right:** The over 2.5 goals line landed correctly — 3 goals scored against our 53.7% probability call. Expected total goals (2.8) also tracked closely to the actual 3-goal output. A reasonable volume read overall. ❌ **Wrong:** The headline call was wrong. Our model gave United a 53.2% win probability — the actual result fell squarely in the 20.9% Leeds-win scenario. The predicted score of 1-0 missed entirely; the actual scoreline was 1-2. Seven live signals flagged during the match did not salvage the directional miss. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** Winner — ❌ Missed | Score — ❌ Missed | Over 2.5 goals — ✅ Correct | Expected goals total — ✅ Close (2.8 vs 3) Full verification data available at **oddsflow.io/verify** 💬 Leeds' xG was modeled at just 0.97 — what do you think drove their overperformance here? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/manchester-united-vs-leeds-1379285) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*