Will Croatia advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives Croatia a 85.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can Croatia win the 2026 World Cup?

Croatia has a 4.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 53, Midfield: 58, Defense: 48, Goalkeeping: 51).

What is Croatia's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

Croatia has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 53, Midfield 58, Defense 48, Goalkeeping 51.

Who are Croatia's star players at World Cup 2026?

Croatia's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: M. Kovačić (Midfielder, OPR 77, OPR 77); J. Gvardiol (Defender, OPR 75, 2G 4A (2201min)); M. Baturina (Midfielder, OPR 70, 8G 4A (1872min)); I. Perišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 10G 14A (3130min)); L. Modrić (Midfielder, OPR 68, 3G 3A (3231min)).

What are Croatia's strengths and weaknesses?

Strengths: Prolific attack, Deep squad rotation. Weaknesses: Uncertain goalkeeper. Squad depth score: 87.0, average age: 27.4.

How strong is Croatia's squad for World Cup 2026?

Croatia's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 52.1, Midfield control 57.9, Defensive solidity 47.7, GK rating 50.2. Lambda attack 1.60, lambda defense 1.28. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 87. Top scorer: A. Budimir (18 goals).

Croatia — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53综合

⚡进攻

⚙️中场

🛡️防守

🧤门将

26人数

27.4平均年龄

63.2平均OVR

87.0深度评分

53综合

⚡进攻

⚙️中场

🛡️防守

🧤门将

26人数

27.4平均年龄

63.2平均OVR

87.0深度评分

明星球员

M. Kovačić

Midfielder

OPR 77

J. Gvardiol

Defender

2G 4A (2201min)

M. Baturina

Midfielder

8G 4A (1872min)

I. Perišić

Attacker

10G 14A (3130min)

L. Modrić

Midfielder

3G 3A (3231min)

赛事概率

4.1%冠军冠军

4.1%

85.2%小组出线小组出线

85.2%

优势

Prolific attack

Deep squad rotation

劣势

Uncertain goalkeeper

主教练 & 战术档案

Zlatko Dalić

Croatian · 任命 October 2017

4-2-3-1Runner-up (2018)

2018 WC Runner-up2022 WC 3rd place

预选赛

Winners — 7W-1D, 26 GF / 4 GA

关键事实

◆Modrić 5th World Cup (NOT 6th - missed 2010)
◆Modrić at AC Milan now, age 40, 196 caps
◆Best qualifying campaign by GD ratio

战术哲学

Midfield dominance, technical quality, tactical discipline. Blends youth with veteran experience.

主教练分析

Zlatko Dalić is Croatia's most successful manager and the embodiment of the nation's remarkable overachievement on the world stage. Since taking charge in October 2017, he has led Croatia to a World Cup final (2018, losing 4-2 to France) and a World Cup third place (2022, beating Morocco 2-1). His achievement is extraordinary given Croatia's population of just 3.9 million — making them by far the smallest nation to consistently reach World Cup semi-finals. This will be his third World Cup as Croatia manager.

战术深度分析

Dalić's 4-2-3-1 is built entirely around midfield control, with the iconic partnership of Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić as the double pivot. At 40 years old and 196 caps, Modrić (now at AC Milan) brings unmatched experience and game intelligence. The transition question is critical: when Modrić eventually tires, Croatia's entire tactical identity changes. Gvardiol provides a modern dimension at left-back — at Man City he plays a hybrid CB/LB role pushing extremely high, and for Croatia he provides overlapping width. The striker position features Ante Budimir (Osasuna), a target man who offers aerial threat but less mobility than some alternatives.

预测首发阵容

Dominik Livaković

Dinamo Zagreb (loan from Fenerbahce)

Josip Stanišić

Bayern Munich

Duje Ćaleta-Car

Lyon

Josip Šutalo

Ajax

Joško Gvardiol

Manchester City

Minor - more inverted at club

Luka Modrić

AC Milan

System change - 3-man MF to double pivot

Mateo Kovačić

Manchester City

Minor - midfield 3 to double pivot

Ivan Perišić

PSV Eindhoven

Andrej Kramarić

Hoffenheim

Mario Pašalić

Atalanta

Moderate - central at club, right for Croatia

Ante Budimir

Osasuna

关键替补

Martin Baturina

Como · AM — next-gen Modrić heir

Luka Sučić

Real Sociedad · CM rotation

Nikola Vlašić

Torino · AM/SS rotation

Borna Sosa

Crystal Palace · LB backup for Gvardiol

球队实力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.60

λ 进攻

1.28

λ 防守

化学反应

深度

9.4

明星差距

27.4

平均年龄

最佳射手

A. Budimir

18 球

最佳评分

L. Modrić

7.55

俱乐部集群

Manchester City (2)Real Sociedad (2)

世界杯经验

参赛次数6

最佳成绩Runner-up 2018

上次参赛2022

身体韧性

赛季场均分钟2,573

疲劳系数Good recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

高温气候球员0%

合作指数

Score36/100

俱乐部数23

同队搭档2

同联赛搭档75

Average — typical international squad

H2H 对阵预测(47)

胜平负

库拉索

1-0▼

56%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.8O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

伊拉克

0-1▼

56%

25%

19%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

伊朗

1-0▼

55%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 48%

乌兹别克斯坦

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

1-0▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Korea

1-0▼

54%

26%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

海地

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

埃及

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 56%BTTS 57%

卡塔尔

1-1▼

48%

25%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

突尼斯

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

加纳

1-1▼

46%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

约旦

1-1▼

46%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

澳大利亚

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

新西兰

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拿马

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

沙特阿拉伯

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

阿尔及利亚

1-1▼

45%

24%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

挪威

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

厄瓜多尔

1-1▼

43%

27%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 46%BTTS 52%

刚果民主共和国

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

42%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

苏格兰

1-1▼

42%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

哥伦比亚

1-1▼

42%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

美国

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

41%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

瑞士

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

瑞典

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奥地利

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

比利时

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

塞内加尔

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

荷兰

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

土耳其

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

乌拉圭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 53%

阿根廷

1-1▼

36%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

西班牙

1-1▼

35%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

德国

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

英格兰

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法国

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

敏感度分析(51 场景)

各场景排名分布

Heat ×3

▼4

Altitude ×0.5

▼4

Altitude ×2

▼4

Travel ×0.75

▼4

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.5

▼4

Uplift 1

▼4

Altitude ×2.5

▼3

Altitude ×1.75

▼3

Travel ×0.5

▼3

Spread 1

▼3

Spread 2.1

▼3

Spread 3

▼3

Penalty rand=0.7

▼3

Heat ×0

▼2

Heat ×0.5

▼2

Heat ×0.75

▼2

Heat ×2

▼2

Heat ×0.25

▼2

Altitude ×0

▼2

Altitude ×1.25

▼2

Altitude ×1.5

▼2

Altitude ×0.25

▼2

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×1.25

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▼2

Spread 1.5

▼2

Spread 2.5

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Heat ×2.5

▼1

Heat ×1.75

▼1

Altitude ×0.75

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×2

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼1

Uplift 1.15

▼1

Baseline

—

Baseline: #9·排名越低越好

baseline

1 场景 · #9

heat

10 场景 · #5–#8

altitude

10 场景 · #5–#8

travel

10 场景 · #5–#8

host

5 场景 · #7–#8

mismatch

5 场景 · #5–#8

spread

5 场景 · #6–#7

penalty

3 场景 · #5–#6

uplift

2 场景 · #5–#8

主教练 & 战术档案

Zlatko Dalić

Croatian · 任命 October 2017

4-2-3-1Runner-up (2018)

2018 WC Runner-up2022 WC 3rd place

预选赛

Winners — 7W-1D, 26 GF / 4 GA

关键事实

◆Modrić 5th World Cup (NOT 6th - missed 2010)
◆Modrić at AC Milan now, age 40, 196 caps
◆Best qualifying campaign by GD ratio

战术哲学

Midfield dominance, technical quality, tactical discipline. Blends youth with veteran experience.

主教练分析

战术深度分析

预测首发阵容

Dominik Livaković

Dinamo Zagreb (loan from Fenerbahce)

Josip Stanišić

Bayern Munich

Duje Ćaleta-Car

Lyon

Josip Šutalo

Ajax

Joško Gvardiol

Manchester City

Minor - more inverted at club

Luka Modrić

AC Milan

System change - 3-man MF to double pivot

Mateo Kovačić

Manchester City

Minor - midfield 3 to double pivot

Ivan Perišić

PSV Eindhoven

Andrej Kramarić

Hoffenheim

Mario Pašalić

Atalanta

Moderate - central at club, right for Croatia

Ante Budimir

Osasuna

关键替补

Martin Baturina

Como · AM — next-gen Modrić heir

Luka Sučić

Real Sociedad · CM rotation

Nikola Vlašić

Torino · AM/SS rotation

Borna Sosa

Crystal Palace · LB backup for Gvardiol

球队实力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.60

λ 进攻

1.28

λ 防守

化学反应

深度

9.4

明星差距

27.4

平均年龄

最佳射手

A. Budimir

18 球

最佳评分

L. Modrić

7.55

俱乐部集群

Manchester City (2)Real Sociedad (2)

世界杯经验

参赛次数6

最佳成绩Runner-up 2018

上次参赛2022

身体韧性

赛季场均分钟2,573

疲劳系数Good recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

高温气候球员0%

合作指数

Score36/100

俱乐部数23

同队搭档2

同联赛搭档75

Average — typical international squad

H2H 对阵预测(47)

胜平负

库拉索

1-0▼

56%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.8O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

伊拉克

0-1▼

56%

25%

19%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

伊朗

1-0▼

55%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 48%

乌兹别克斯坦

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

1-0▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Korea

1-0▼

54%

26%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

海地

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

埃及

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 56%BTTS 57%

卡塔尔

1-1▼

48%

25%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

突尼斯

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

加纳

1-1▼

46%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

约旦

1-1▼

46%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

澳大利亚

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

新西兰

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拿马

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

沙特阿拉伯

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

阿尔及利亚

1-1▼

45%

24%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

挪威

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

厄瓜多尔

1-1▼

43%

27%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 46%BTTS 52%

刚果民主共和国

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

42%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

苏格兰

1-1▼

42%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

哥伦比亚

1-1▼

42%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

美国

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

41%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

瑞士

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

瑞典

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奥地利

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

比利时

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

塞内加尔

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

荷兰

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

土耳其

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

乌拉圭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 53%

阿根廷

1-1▼

36%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

西班牙

1-1▼

35%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

德国

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

英格兰

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法国

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

敏感度分析(51 场景)

各场景排名分布

Heat ×3

▼4

Altitude ×0.5

▼4

Altitude ×2

▼4

Travel ×0.75

▼4

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.5

▼4

Uplift 1

▼4

Altitude ×2.5

▼3

Altitude ×1.75

▼3

Travel ×0.5

▼3

Spread 1

▼3

Spread 2.1

▼3

Spread 3

▼3

Penalty rand=0.7

▼3

Heat ×0

▼2

Heat ×0.5

▼2

Heat ×0.75

▼2

Heat ×2

▼2

Heat ×0.25

▼2

Altitude ×0

▼2

Altitude ×1.25

▼2

Altitude ×1.5

▼2

Altitude ×0.25

▼2

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×1.25

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▼2

Spread 1.5

▼2

Spread 2.5

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Heat ×2.5

▼1

Heat ×1.75

▼1

Altitude ×0.75

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×2

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼1

Uplift 1.15

▼1

Baseline

—

Baseline: #9·排名越低越好

baseline

1 场景 · #9

heat

10 场景 · #5–#8

altitude

10 场景 · #5–#8

travel

10 场景 · #5–#8

host

5 场景 · #7–#8

mismatch

5 场景 · #5–#8

spread

5 场景 · #6–#7

penalty

3 场景 · #5–#6

uplift

2 场景 · #5–#8

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克罗地亚

OddsFlow AI Analysis

明星球员

赛事概率

优势

劣势

主教练 & 战术档案

预测首发阵容

球队实力分析

H2H 对阵预测(47)

敏感度分析(51 场景)

免费领取 1 场比赛的实时 AI Signal