## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our Monte Carlo simulation (v1.0) identified Osasuna as clear home favorites at 46.8%, with a draw sitting at just 26.2%. Most likely score was projected at 2-1, and we anticipated an open game with expected total goals of 3.0 and a 59.0% probability for Over 2.5. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Real Betis held firm at El Sadar, earning a 1-1 draw. Two goals, no winner, and a low-scoring affair that cut against nearly every core projection. ✅ **Right:** The 26.2% draw probability acknowledged that this outcome was genuinely possible — it wasn't ignored. Both teams scoring was broadly consistent with a competitive, balanced encounter. ❌ **Wrong:** The predicted winner was Osasuna — incorrect. The most likely score of 2-1 did not land. The Over 2.5 projection at 59.0% missed, as only 2 goals were scored against an expected total of 3.0. All three primary prediction pillars — winner, score, and total — came in wrong. That's a clean sweep of misses and must be stated plainly. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 0 of 3 main outputs correct (winner ❌, scoreline ❌, over/under ❌). The result fell within modeled probability space but outside our highest-confidence outcomes. 🔗 Verify full model output: [OddsFlow Verification Page](#) 💬 Did Betis's defensive structure surprise you, or did Osasuna simply have an off night in front of goal? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/osasuna-vs-real-betis-1391125) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*