Will USA advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives USA a 65.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can USA win the 2026 World Cup?

USA has a 1.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 55, Defense: 46, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is USA's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

USA has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 55, Defense 46, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football.

Who are USA's star players at World Cup 2026?

USA's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Freeman (Defender, OPR 72, OPR 72); R. Pepi (Attacker, OPR 70, 19G 4A (1857min)); S. Berhalter (Midfielder, OPR 69, 7G 5A (1813min)); C. Richards (Defender, OPR 69, 3G 0A (4807min)); C. Pulišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 12G 6A (2152min)).

How strong is USA's squad for World Cup 2026?

USA's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.4, Midfield control 54.4, Defensive solidity 46.3, GK rating 82.7. Lambda attack 1.39, lambda defense 0.93. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 84. Top scorer: R. Pepi (19 goals).

USA — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53綜合

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡進攻

⚙️中場

🛡️防守

🧤門將

26人數

25.9平均年齡

60.9平均OVR

84.0深度評分

53綜合

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡進攻

⚙️中場

🛡️防守

🧤門將

26人數

25.9平均年齡

60.9平均OVR

84.0深度評分

明星球員

A. Freeman

Defender

OPR 72

R. Pepi

Attacker

19G 4A (1857min)

S. Berhalter

Midfielder

7G 5A (1813min)

C. Richards

Defender

3G 0A (4807min)

C. Pulišić

Attacker

12G 6A (2152min)

賽事機率

1.1%冠軍冠軍

1.1%

65.2%小組出線小組出線

65.2%

主教練 & 戰術檔案

· 任命

球隊實力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H 對陣預測(47)

WinDrawLoss

庫拉索

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

海地

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

伊拉克

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

烏茲別克

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

埃及

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

卡達

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

突尼西亞

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

迦納

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

澳洲

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

紐西蘭

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

沙烏地阿拉伯

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

巴拿馬

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

約旦

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

阿爾及利亞

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

剛果民主共和國

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

厄瓜多

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

挪威

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

蘇格蘭

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

哥倫比亞

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

瑞士

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奧地利

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

瑞典

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

塞內加爾

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

烏拉圭

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

克羅埃西亞

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

土耳其

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

荷蘭

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

比利時

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

阿根廷

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

西班牙

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

德國

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

英格蘭

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法國

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

球隊實力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H 對陣預測(47)

WinDrawLoss

庫拉索

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

海地

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

伊拉克

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

烏茲別克

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

埃及

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

卡達

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

突尼西亞

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

迦納

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

澳洲

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

紐西蘭

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

沙烏地阿拉伯

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

巴拿馬

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

約旦

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

阿爾及利亞

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

剛果民主共和國

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

厄瓜多

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

挪威

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

蘇格蘭

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

哥倫比亞

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

瑞士

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奧地利

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

瑞典

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

塞內加爾

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

烏拉圭

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

克羅埃西亞

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

土耳其

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

荷蘭

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

比利時

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

阿根廷

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

西班牙

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

德國

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

英格蘭

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法國

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

美國

OddsFlow AI Analysis

明星球員

賽事機率

主教練 & 戰術檔案

球隊實力分析

H2H 對陣預測(47)

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

免費領取 1 場比賽的即時 AI Signal

美國

OddsFlow AI Analysis

明星球員

賽事機率

主教練 & 戰術檔案

球隊實力分析

H2H 對陣預測(47)

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

免費領取 1 場比賽的即時 AI Signal