Will Croatia advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives Croatia a 85.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can Croatia win the 2026 World Cup?

Croatia has a 4.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 53, Midfield: 58, Defense: 48, Goalkeeping: 51).

What is Croatia's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

Croatia has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 53, Midfield 58, Defense 48, Goalkeeping 51.

Who are Croatia's star players at World Cup 2026?

Croatia's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: M. Kovačić (Midfielder, OPR 77, OPR 77); J. Gvardiol (Defender, OPR 75, 2G 4A (2201min)); M. Baturina (Midfielder, OPR 70, 8G 4A (1872min)); I. Perišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 10G 14A (3130min)); L. Modrić (Midfielder, OPR 68, 3G 3A (3231min)).

What are Croatia's strengths and weaknesses?

Strengths: Prolific attack, Deep squad rotation. Weaknesses: Uncertain goalkeeper. Squad depth score: 87.0, average age: 27.4.

How strong is Croatia's squad for World Cup 2026?

Croatia's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 52.1, Midfield control 57.9, Defensive solidity 47.7, GK rating 50.2. Lambda attack 1.60, lambda defense 1.28. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 87. Top scorer: A. Budimir (18 goals).

Croatia — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53綜合

⚡進攻

⚙️中場

🛡️防守

🧤門將

26人數

27.4平均年齡

63.2平均OVR

87.0深度評分

53綜合

⚡進攻

⚙️中場

🛡️防守

🧤門將

26人數

27.4平均年齡

63.2平均OVR

87.0深度評分

明星球員

M. Kovačić

Midfielder

OPR 77

J. Gvardiol

Defender

2G 4A (2201min)

M. Baturina

Midfielder

8G 4A (1872min)

I. Perišić

Attacker

10G 14A (3130min)

L. Modrić

Midfielder

3G 3A (3231min)

賽事機率

4.1%冠軍冠軍

4.1%

85.2%小組出線小組出線

85.2%

優勢

Prolific attack

Deep squad rotation

劣勢

Uncertain goalkeeper

主教練 & 戰術檔案

Zlatko Dalić

Croatian · 任命 October 2017

4-2-3-1Runner-up (2018)

2018 WC Runner-up2022 WC 3rd place

預選賽

Winners — 7W-1D, 26 GF / 4 GA

關鍵事實

◆Modrić 5th World Cup (NOT 6th - missed 2010)
◆Modrić at AC Milan now, age 40, 196 caps
◆Best qualifying campaign by GD ratio

戰術哲學

Midfield dominance, technical quality, tactical discipline. Blends youth with veteran experience.

主教練分析

Zlatko Dalić is Croatia's most successful manager and the embodiment of the nation's remarkable overachievement on the world stage. Since taking charge in October 2017, he has led Croatia to a World Cup final (2018, losing 4-2 to France) and a World Cup third place (2022, beating Morocco 2-1). His achievement is extraordinary given Croatia's population of just 3.9 million — making them by far the smallest nation to consistently reach World Cup semi-finals. This will be his third World Cup as Croatia manager.

戰術深度分析

Dalić's 4-2-3-1 is built entirely around midfield control, with the iconic partnership of Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić as the double pivot. At 40 years old and 196 caps, Modrić (now at AC Milan) brings unmatched experience and game intelligence. The transition question is critical: when Modrić eventually tires, Croatia's entire tactical identity changes. Gvardiol provides a modern dimension at left-back — at Man City he plays a hybrid CB/LB role pushing extremely high, and for Croatia he provides overlapping width. The striker position features Ante Budimir (Osasuna), a target man who offers aerial threat but less mobility than some alternatives.

預測首發陣容

Dominik Livaković

Dinamo Zagreb (loan from Fenerbahce)

Josip Stanišić

Bayern Munich

Duje Ćaleta-Car

Lyon

Josip Šutalo

Ajax

Joško Gvardiol

Manchester City

Minor - more inverted at club

Luka Modrić

AC Milan

System change - 3-man MF to double pivot

Mateo Kovačić

Manchester City

Minor - midfield 3 to double pivot

Ivan Perišić

PSV Eindhoven

Andrej Kramarić

Hoffenheim

Mario Pašalić

Atalanta

Moderate - central at club, right for Croatia

Ante Budimir

Osasuna

關鍵替補

Martin Baturina

Como · AM — next-gen Modrić heir

Luka Sučić

Real Sociedad · CM rotation

Nikola Vlašić

Torino · AM/SS rotation

Borna Sosa

Crystal Palace · LB backup for Gvardiol

球隊實力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.60

λ Attack

1.28

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

9.4

Star Gap

27.4

Avg Age

Top Scorer

A. Budimir

18 goals

Best Rated

L. Modrić

7.55

Club Clusters

Manchester City (2)Real Sociedad (2)

WC Experience

Appearances6

Best FinishRunner-up 2018

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,573

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %0%

Cooperation

Score36/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League75

Average — typical international squad

H2H 對陣預測(47)

WinDrawLoss

庫拉索

1-0▼

56%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.8O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

伊拉克

0-1▼

56%

25%

19%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

55%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 48%

烏茲別克

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

1-0▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Korea

1-0▼

54%

26%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

海地

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

埃及

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 56%BTTS 57%

卡達

1-1▼

48%

25%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

突尼西亞

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

迦納

1-1▼

46%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

約旦

1-1▼

46%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

澳洲

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

紐西蘭

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拿馬

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

沙烏地阿拉伯

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

阿爾及利亞

1-1▼

45%

24%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

挪威

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

厄瓜多

1-1▼

43%

27%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 46%BTTS 52%

剛果民主共和國

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

42%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

蘇格蘭

1-1▼

42%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

哥倫比亞

1-1▼

42%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

美國

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

41%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

瑞士

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

瑞典

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奧地利

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

比利時

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

塞內加爾

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

荷蘭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

土耳其

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

烏拉圭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 53%

阿根廷

1-1▼

36%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

西班牙

1-1▼

35%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

德國

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

英格蘭

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法國

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×3

▼4

Altitude ×0.5

▼4

Altitude ×2

▼4

Travel ×0.75

▼4

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.5

▼4

Uplift 1

▼4

Altitude ×2.5

▼3

Altitude ×1.75

▼3

Travel ×0.5

▼3

Spread 1

▼3

Spread 2.1

▼3

Spread 3

▼3

Penalty rand=0.7

▼3

Heat ×0

▼2

Heat ×0.5

▼2

Heat ×0.75

▼2

Heat ×2

▼2

Heat ×0.25

▼2

Altitude ×0

▼2

Altitude ×1.25

▼2

Altitude ×1.5

▼2

Altitude ×0.25

▼2

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×1.25

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▼2

Spread 1.5

▼2

Spread 2.5

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Heat ×2.5

▼1

Heat ×1.75

▼1

Altitude ×0.75

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×2

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼1

Uplift 1.15

▼1

Baseline

—

Baseline: #9·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #9

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #7–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#8

spread

5 scenarios · #6–#7

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#6

uplift

2 scenarios · #5–#8

主教練 & 戰術檔案

Zlatko Dalić

Croatian · 任命 October 2017

4-2-3-1Runner-up (2018)

2018 WC Runner-up2022 WC 3rd place

預選賽

Winners — 7W-1D, 26 GF / 4 GA

關鍵事實

◆Modrić 5th World Cup (NOT 6th - missed 2010)
◆Modrić at AC Milan now, age 40, 196 caps
◆Best qualifying campaign by GD ratio

戰術哲學

Midfield dominance, technical quality, tactical discipline. Blends youth with veteran experience.

主教練分析

戰術深度分析

預測首發陣容

Dominik Livaković

Dinamo Zagreb (loan from Fenerbahce)

Josip Stanišić

Bayern Munich

Duje Ćaleta-Car

Lyon

Josip Šutalo

Ajax

Joško Gvardiol

Manchester City

Minor - more inverted at club

Luka Modrić

AC Milan

System change - 3-man MF to double pivot

Mateo Kovačić

Manchester City

Minor - midfield 3 to double pivot

Ivan Perišić

PSV Eindhoven

Andrej Kramarić

Hoffenheim

Mario Pašalić

Atalanta

Moderate - central at club, right for Croatia

Ante Budimir

Osasuna

關鍵替補

Martin Baturina

Como · AM — next-gen Modrić heir

Luka Sučić

Real Sociedad · CM rotation

Nikola Vlašić

Torino · AM/SS rotation

Borna Sosa

Crystal Palace · LB backup for Gvardiol

球隊實力分析

ATK

MID

DEF

1.60

λ Attack

1.28

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

9.4

Star Gap

27.4

Avg Age

Top Scorer

A. Budimir

18 goals

Best Rated

L. Modrić

7.55

Club Clusters

Manchester City (2)Real Sociedad (2)

WC Experience

Appearances6

Best FinishRunner-up 2018

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,573

FatigueGood recovery — peak physical years

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %0%

Cooperation

Score36/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League75

Average — typical international squad

H2H 對陣預測(47)

WinDrawLoss

庫拉索

1-0▼

56%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.8O2.5 45%BTTS 46%

伊拉克

0-1▼

56%

25%

19%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

55%

24%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 48%

烏茲別克

0-1▼

55%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

南非

1-0▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

South Korea

1-0▼

54%

26%

20%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

海地

0-1▼

54%

25%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

0-1▼

54%

24%

22%

xG 1.7 – 1.0O2.5 51%BTTS 52%

埃及

1-1▼

51%

24%

25%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 56%BTTS 57%

卡達

1-1▼

48%

25%

27%

xG 1.6 – 1.1O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

突尼西亞

1-1▼

47%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

迦納

1-1▼

46%

25%

28%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

約旦

1-1▼

46%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

澳洲

1-1▼

46%

25%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 51%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 51%BTTS 54%

紐西蘭

1-1▼

45%

26%

29%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拿馬

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

墨西哥

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.2O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

沙烏地阿拉伯

1-1▼

45%

26%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

阿爾及利亞

1-1▼

45%

24%

31%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

加拿大

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

挪威

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

厄瓜多

1-1▼

43%

27%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 46%BTTS 52%

剛果民主共和國

1-1▼

43%

25%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

巴拉圭

1-1▼

42%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

蘇格蘭

1-1▼

42%

25%

32%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 52%BTTS 55%

哥倫比亞

1-1▼

42%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

摩洛哥

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

美國

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

41%

27%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

瑞士

1-1▼

40%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

日本

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

瑞典

1-1▼

40%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

奧地利

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

比利時

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 53%

巴西

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

塞內加爾

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

荷蘭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

土耳其

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

烏拉圭

1-1▼

37%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 53%

阿根廷

1-1▼

36%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 56%

西班牙

1-1▼

35%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

德國

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

葡萄牙

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

英格蘭

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

法國

1-1▼

33%

25%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×3

▼4

Altitude ×0.5

▼4

Altitude ×2

▼4

Travel ×0.75

▼4

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.3

▼4

Penalty rand=0.5

▼4

Uplift 1

▼4

Altitude ×2.5

▼3

Altitude ×1.75

▼3

Travel ×0.5

▼3

Spread 1

▼3

Spread 2.1

▼3

Spread 3

▼3

Penalty rand=0.7

▼3

Heat ×0

▼2

Heat ×0.5

▼2

Heat ×0.75

▼2

Heat ×2

▼2

Heat ×0.25

▼2

Altitude ×0

▼2

Altitude ×1.25

▼2

Altitude ×1.5

▼2

Altitude ×0.25

▼2

Travel ×0

▼2

Travel ×1.25

▼2

Travel ×2

▼2

Travel ×2.5

▼2

Travel ×3

▼2

Travel ×0.25

▼2

Host ×0

▼2

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

▼2

Spread 1.5

▼2

Spread 2.5

▼2

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Heat ×2.5

▼1

Heat ×1.75

▼1

Altitude ×0.75

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×0.5

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×2

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

▼1

Uplift 1.15

▼1

Baseline

—

Baseline: #9·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #9

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #7–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#8

spread

5 scenarios · #6–#7

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#6

uplift

2 scenarios · #5–#8

克羅埃西亞

OddsFlow AI Analysis

明星球員

賽事機率

優勢

劣勢

主教練 & 戰術檔案

預測首發陣容

球隊實力分析

H2H 對陣預測(47)

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

免費領取 1 場比賽的即時 AI Signal

克羅埃西亞

OddsFlow AI Analysis

明星球員

賽事機率

優勢

劣勢

主教練 & 戰術檔案

預測首發陣容

球隊實力分析

H2H 對陣預測(47)

敏感度分析(51 scenarios)

免費領取 1 場比賽的即時 AI Signal