AI Football Predictions — How It Works

AI models predict football matches across Premier League (EPL), La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Champions League. Get free 1x2 predictions, over/under tips, and Asian handicap analysis updated daily.

Supported Leagues

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia AI PredictionPrimeira Liga Sunday, 10 May 2026

Competition: Primeira Liga

Date: Sunday, 10 May 2026

Kickoff Time: 00:00 (GMT+8)

Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Last Updated: 2026-05-09T18:20:25.672Z

AI Match Analysis Summary

OddsFlow AI predicts Guimaraes Win (1) for this Primeira Liga clash between Guimaraes and Casa Pia on Sunday, 10 May 2026. Our ensemble machine learning model assigns a 45% probability to a home win, 45% to a draw, and 10% to an away victory. Confidence level: Medium. Analysis based on recent form, historical head-to-head data, team strength ratings, and real-time odds from major odds providers.

OddsFlow AI Pre-Match Prediction

Predicted Match Result (1X2)

AI Prediction: Guimaraes Win (1)

Confidence Level: Medium

1X2 Win Probabilities

  • Home Win (1) - Guimaraes: 45%
  • Draw (X): 45%
  • Away Win (2) - Casa Pia: 10%

Team Strength Analysis

Guimaraes Strength: 83.0

Casa Pia Strength: 17.0

Model Last Updated: 2026-04-25T23:03:03.39491+00:00

Join the Discussion

Discuss this match with the OddsFlow community. AI predictions, live commentary, and post-match analysis.

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Match Thread

Disclaimer: OddsFlow.ai provides AI-powered sports analytics for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not an odds provider and do not accept predictions. Use responsibly.

View our verified track record: Real Bet Results with PDF Verification

AI Prematch Analysis — Pre-Lineup

Guimaraes ist im Heimspiel gegen Casa Pia der klare Favorit, mit einer Siegwahrscheinlichkeit von 60,2%. Das Spiel wird voraussichtlich torarm verlaufen, mit dem wahrscheinlichsten Ergebnis von 1:0 und einer 56,1%igen Chance auf unter 2,5 Tore. Ein knapper Sieg für Guimaraes scheint das wahrscheinlichste Ergebnis zu sein.

Basierend auf unserer Monte-Carlo-Simulation geht Guimaraes als klarer Favorit in dieses Primeira-Liga-Spiel gegen Casa Pia. Ihre Heimstärke, die sich in einem λ-Wert von 1,78 widerspiegelt, übertrifft die Auswärtsstärke von Casa Pia (λ = 0,63) erheblich. Dieser erhebliche Unterschied im Offensivpotenzial untermauert die Prognose einer dominanten Leistung der Heimmannschaft. Die 1X2-Wahrscheinlichkeiten unterstreichen den Vorteil von Guimaraes: ein Heimsieg liegt bei 60,2%, während ein Unentschieden bei 24,6% und ein Auswärtssieg bei lediglich 15,2% liegt. Die erwarteten Tore bestätigen dies zusätzlich, wobei Guimaraes voraussichtlich 1,80 Tore erzielt gegenüber 0,63 Toren für Casa Pia, was zu insgesamt 2,43 erwarteten Toren führt. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass Guimaraes fast dreimal so viele Tore wie ihre Gegner erzielen könnte. Das wahrscheinlichste Spielergebnis, das die Simulation identifiziert hat, ist ein 1:0-Sieg für Guimaraes, was die Erwartung einer engen, torarmen Begegnung verstärkt. Dies spiegelt sich auch in der BTTS-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Beide Teams treffen) wider, die bei niedrigen 39,2% liegt, was darauf hindeutet, dass ein "zu Null"-Spiel für Guimaraes durchaus möglich ist. In Bezug auf die Gesamtanzahl der Tore deuten die Daten stark auf ein "Unter"-Spiel hin. Während über 1,5 Tore eine 71,0%ige Chance haben, ist "unter 2,5 Tore" mit 56,1% wahrscheinlicher, und "unter 3,5 Tore" ist mit einer 77,5%igen Chance sehr wahrscheinlich. Dies stimmt perfekt mit dem wahrscheinlichsten Ergebnis von 1:0 und Guimaraes' starkem Defensivpotenzial zu Hause überein. Betrachtet man die asiatischen Handicap-Märkte, so hat Guimaraes einen Sieg mit beliebigem Vorsprung (AH -0,5) eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64,9%, was ihre Favoritenrolle weiter festigt. Ein "Draw No Bet"-Szenario (AH +0) für Guimaraes ist sogar noch stärker mit 64,9%. Ein Sieg von Guimaraes mit zwei oder mehr Toren Vorsprung (AH -1,5) sinkt jedoch erheblich auf 39,4%, was darauf hindeutet, dass, obwohl ein Sieg wahrscheinlich ist, dieser eher knapp ausfallen wird. Beide Teams sind voraussichtlich in Bestbesetzung, sodass keine wesentlichen Spielerabsenzen diese statistischen Prognosen stören werden. Angesichts der Daten umfassen starke Wettvorschläge einen direkten Sieg von Guimaraes (60,2%), unter 2,5 Tore (56,1%) oder Guimaraes im asiatischen Handicap -0,5 Markt (64,9%) für einen Sieg mit einem Tor Vorsprung.

Guimaraes are strong favorites at home against Casa Pia, with a 60.2% probability of winning. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with the most likely score being 1-0 and Under 2.5 goals having a 56.1% chance. Guimaraes securing a narrow victory appears to be the most probable outcome.

Based on our Monte Carlo simulation, Guimaraes enters this Primeira Liga fixture against Casa Pia as the clear favorite. Their home strength, reflected in a λ value of 1.78, significantly outweighs Casa Pia's away strength of λ = 0.63. This substantial difference in offensive potential underpins the prediction of a dominant performance from the home side. The 1X2 probabilities highlight Guimaraes' advantage, with a Home Win standing at 60.2%, compared to a Draw at 24.6% and an Away Win at a mere 15.2%. The Expected Goals further support this, projecting Guimaraes to score 1.80 goals against Casa Pia's 0.63, leading to a total expected goals of 2.43. This suggests Guimaraes could score almost three times as many goals as their opponents. The most likely scoreline identified by the simulation is a 1-0 victory for Guimaraes, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, low-scoring encounter. This is also reflected in the BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability, which stands at a low 39.2%, indicating that a clean sheet for Guimaraes is quite possible. Regarding goal totals, the data strongly points towards an Under game. While Over 1.5 goals has a 71.0% chance, Under 2.5 goals is more likely at 56.1%, and Under 3.5 goals is highly probable with a 77.5% chance. This aligns perfectly with the 1-0 most likely score and Guimaraes' strong defensive potential at home. Examining the Asian Handicap markets, Guimaraes winning by any margin (AH -0.5) holds a 64.9% probability, further solidifying their favoritism. A draw no bet scenario (AH +0) for Guimaraes is even stronger at 64.9%. However, Guimaraes winning by a margin of two goals or more (AH -1.5) drops significantly to 39.4%, suggesting that while a win is likely, it's more probable to be a narrow one. Both teams are reported to be at full strength, meaning no significant player absences will disrupt these statistical projections. Given the data, strong betting propositions include Guimaraes to win outright (60.2%), Under 2.5 goals (56.1%), or Guimaraes on the Asian Handicap -0.5 market (64.9%) for a single goal margin victory.

Guimaraes es el claro favorito en casa contra Casa Pia, con una probabilidad de victoria del 60.2%. Se espera que el partido sea de pocos goles, con el resultado más probable de 1-0 y un 56.1% de posibilidades de que haya menos de 2.5 goles. Una victoria ajustada para Guimaraes parece ser el resultado más probable.

Según nuestra simulación Monte Carlo, Guimaraes se presenta a este partido de la Primeira Liga contra Casa Pia como el claro favorito. Su fortaleza en casa, reflejada en un valor λ de 1.78, supera significativamente la fortaleza de Casa Pia como visitante, con un λ de 0.63. Esta sustancial diferencia en el potencial ofensivo sustenta la predicción de un rendimiento dominante por parte del equipo local. Las probabilidades 1X2 destacan la ventaja de Guimaraes, con una victoria local del 60.2%, en comparación con un empate del 24.6% y una victoria visitante de solo el 15.2%. Los Goles Esperados (xG) respaldan aún más esto, proyectando que Guimaraes marcará 1.80 goles frente a los 0.63 de Casa Pia, lo que lleva a un total de 2.43 Goles Esperados. Esto sugiere que Guimaraes podría marcar casi tres veces más goles que sus oponentes. El resultado más probable identificado por la simulación es una victoria por 1-0 para Guimaraes, lo que refuerza la expectativa de un encuentro ajustado y con pocos goles. Esto también se refleja en la probabilidad de BTTS (Ambos Equipos Anotan), que se sitúa en un bajo 39.2%, indicando que una portería a cero para Guimaraes es bastante posible. En cuanto al total de goles, los datos apuntan fuertemente a un partido con "menos" goles. Si bien Over 1.5 goles tiene un 71.0% de posibilidades, Under 2.5 goles es más probable con un 56.1%, y Under 3.5 goles es altamente probable con un 77.5% de posibilidades. Esto se alinea perfectamente con el resultado más probable de 1-0 y el fuerte potencial defensivo de Guimaraes en casa. Examinando los mercados de Hándicap Asiático, Guimaraes ganando por cualquier margen (AH -0.5) tiene una probabilidad del 64.9%, lo que solidifica aún más su favoritismo. Un escenario de "empate no apuesta" (AH +0) para Guimaraes es incluso más fuerte con un 64.9%. Sin embargo, la probabilidad de que Guimaraes gane por un margen de dos o más goles (AH -1.5) cae significativamente al 39.4%, lo que sugiere que, si bien una victoria es probable, es más probable que sea ajustada. Ambos equipos se reportan con sus plantillas completas, lo que significa que no habrá ausencias significativas de jugadores que alteren estas proyecciones estadísticas. Dados los datos, las propuestas de apuestas sólidas incluyen la victoria directa de Guimaraes (60.2%), menos de 2.5 goles (56.1%), o Guimaraes en el mercado de Hándicap Asiático -0.5 (64.9%) para una victoria por un gol de diferencia.

Guimaraes est le grand favori à domicile contre Casa Pia, avec une probabilité de victoire de 60,2%. Le match devrait être peu prolifique en buts, le score le plus probable étant 1-0 et la probabilité de moins de 2,5 buts s'élevant à 56,1%. Une victoire étroite de Guimaraes semble être le résultat le plus probable.

Basé sur notre simulation de Monte Carlo, Guimaraes aborde cette rencontre de Primeira Liga contre Casa Pia en tant que favori incontestable. Leur force à domicile, reflétée par une valeur λ de 1,78, surpasse significativement la force à l'extérieur de Casa Pia, avec un λ de 0,63. Cette différence substantielle de potentiel offensif étaye la prédiction d'une performance dominante de la part de l'équipe locale. Les probabilités 1X2 mettent en évidence l'avantage de Guimaraes, avec une victoire à domicile à 60,2%, contre un match nul à 24,6% et une victoire à l'extérieur à seulement 15,2%. Les buts attendus (xG) confirment cela, projetant Guimaraes à marquer 1,80 buts contre 0,63 pour Casa Pia, ce qui porte le total des buts attendus à 2,43. Cela suggère que Guimaraes pourrait marquer près de trois fois plus de buts que ses adversaires. Le score le plus probable identifié par la simulation est une victoire 1-0 pour Guimaraes, renforçant l'attente d'une rencontre serrée et peu prolifique. Ceci est également reflété dans la probabilité de BTTS (Les Deux Équipes Marquent), qui est faible à 39,2%, indiquant qu'un clean sheet pour Guimaraes est tout à fait possible. En ce qui concerne le total des buts, les données penchent fortement vers un match avec "moins" de buts. Alors que plus de 1,5 buts a 71,0% de chances, moins de 2,5 buts est plus probable avec 56,1%, et moins de 3,5 buts est très probable avec 77,5% de chances. Cela s'aligne parfaitement avec le score le plus probable de 1-0 et le fort potentiel défensif de Guimaraes à domicile. En examinant les marchés de handicap asiatique, Guimaraes gagnant par n'importe quelle marge (AH -0.5) a une probabilité de 64,9%, ce qui solidifie davantage leur statut de favori. Un scénario de "remboursement si match nul" (AH +0) pour Guimaraes est encore plus fort à 64,9%. Cependant, la victoire de Guimaraes par une marge de deux buts ou plus (AH -1.5) chute significativement à 39,4%, suggérant que bien qu'une victoire soit probable, elle le sera plus probablement de manière étroite. Les deux équipes sont signalées comme étant au complet, ce qui signifie qu'aucune absence de joueur significative ne perturbera ces projections statistiques. Compte tenu des données, les propositions de paris solides incluent une victoire directe de Guimaraes (60,2%), moins de 2,5 buts (56,1%) ou Guimaraes sur le marché du handicap asiatique -0,5 (64,9%) pour une victoire avec un seul but d'écart.

Guimaraes adalah favorit kuat di kandang melawan Casa Pia, dengan probabilitas kemenangan 60.2%. Pertandingan diperkirakan akan minim gol, dengan skor paling mungkin 1-0 dan probabilitas Under 2.5 gol sebesar 56.1%. Guimaraes meraih kemenangan tipis tampaknya menjadi hasil yang paling mungkin.

Berdasarkan simulasi Monte Carlo kami, Guimaraes memasuki pertandingan Primeira Liga ini melawan Casa Pia sebagai favorit yang jelas. Kekuatan mereka di kandang, tercermin dalam nilai λ sebesar 1.78, secara signifikan mengungguli kekuatan tandang Casa Pia yang sebesar λ = 0.63. Perbedaan substansial dalam potensi ofensif ini menjadi dasar prediksi performa dominan dari tim tuan rumah. Probabilitas 1X2 menyoroti keunggulan Guimaraes, dengan Kemenangan Kandang mencapai 60.2%, dibandingkan dengan Hasil Imbang 24.6% dan Kemenangan Tandang hanya 15.2%. Expected Goals (xG) lebih lanjut mendukung ini, memproyeksikan Guimaraes mencetak 1.80 gol berbanding 0.63 gol Casa Pia, menghasilkan total expected goals sebesar 2.43. Ini menunjukkan Guimaraes bisa mencetak hampir tiga kali lipat gol dibandingkan lawan mereka. Skor paling mungkin yang diidentifikasi oleh simulasi adalah kemenangan 1-0 untuk Guimaraes, memperkuat ekspektasi pertemuan yang ketat dan minim gol. Hal ini juga tercermin dalam probabilitas BTTS (Kedua Tim Mencetak Gol) yang rendah, yaitu 39.2%, menunjukkan bahwa clean sheet untuk Guimaraes cukup mungkin terjadi. Mengenai total gol, data sangat menunjukkan pertandingan Under. Meskipun Over 1.5 gol memiliki probabilitas 71.0%, Under 2.5 gol lebih mungkin dengan 56.1%, dan Under 3.5 gol sangat mungkin dengan probabilitas 77.5%. Ini selaras sempurna dengan skor paling mungkin 1-0 dan potensi pertahanan kuat Guimaraes di kandang. Melihat pasar Asian Handicap, Guimaraes menang dengan selisih berapa pun (AH -0.5) memiliki probabilitas 64.9%, lebih memperkuat status favorit mereka. Skenario "draw no bet" (AH +0) untuk Guimaraes bahkan lebih kuat di 64.9%. Namun, Guimaraes menang dengan selisih dua gol atau lebih (AH -1.5) turun signifikan menjadi 39.4%, menunjukkan bahwa meskipun kemenangan mungkin terjadi, lebih mungkin terjadi dengan selisih tipis. Kedua tim dilaporkan dalam kekuatan penuh, yang berarti tidak ada absennya pemain penting yang akan mengganggu proyeksi statistik ini. Berdasarkan data, proposisi taruhan yang kuat meliputi Guimaraes untuk menang langsung (60.2%), Under 2.5 gol (56.1%), atau Guimaraes di pasar Asian Handicap -0.5 (64.9%) untuk kemenangan dengan selisih satu gol.

ギマランイスはホームでカーザ・ピアに対し、60.2%の確率で勝利すると予測され、圧倒的な本命です。試合はロースコアになると予想され、最も可能性の高いスコアは1-0、アンダー2.5ゴールは56.1%の確率です。ギマランイスが僅差で勝利する可能性が最も高いと見られます。

モンテカルロシミュレーションに基づくと、ギマランイスはホームでのカーザ・ピアとのプリメイラ・リーガ戦で明確な本命です。ホームでの強さを示すλ値1.78は、カーザ・ピアのアウェイでのλ値0.63を大きく上回っています。この攻撃力の大きな差が、ホームチームの支配的なパフォーマンスの予測を裏付けています。 1X2の確率はギマランイスの優位性を示しており、ホーム勝利は60.2%、引き分けは24.6%、アウェイ勝利はわずか15.2%です。期待ゴール数もこれを裏付けており、ギマランイスが1.80ゴール、カーザ・ピアが0.63ゴールと予測され、合計期待ゴール数は2.43です。これは、ギマランイスが相手のほぼ3倍のゴールを決める可能性があることを示唆しています。 シミュレーションによって特定された最も可能性の高いスコアラインはギマランイスの1-0勝利であり、接戦でロースコアな展開が予想されることを裏付けています。これはBTTS(両チーム得点)の確率が低い39.2%であることからも示されており、ギマランイスのクリーンシートが十分に考えられます。 総ゴール数に関しては、データはロースコアな展開を強く示唆しています。オーバー1.5ゴールは71.0%の確率ですが、アンダー2.5ゴールは56.1%でより可能性が高く、アンダー3.5ゴールは77.5%で非常に高い確率です。これは、最も可能性の高いスコア1-0と、ギマランイスのホームでの強力な守備ポテンシャルと完全に一致しています。 アジアンハンディキャップ市場を見ると、ギマランイスがあらゆる差で勝利する(AH -0.5)確率は64.9%であり、彼らの優位性をさらに固めています。ギマランイスにとってドローノーベットのシナリオ(AH +0)は64.9%とさらに強力です。しかし、ギマランイスが2点差以上で勝利する(AH -1.5)確率は39.4%に大幅に低下しており、勝利は濃厚であるものの、僅差の勝利である可能性が高いことを示唆しています。両チームともにフル戦力であると報告されており、主要選手の欠場がこれらの統計的予測を妨げることはありません。データに基づくと、強力なベッティングプロポジションには、ギマランイスのストレート勝ち(60.2%)、アンダー2.5ゴール(56.1%)、または1点差での勝利を狙ったアジアンハンディキャップ -0.5でのギマランイス(64.9%)が含まれます。

기마랑이스는 카사 피아와의 홈 경기에서 60.2%의 승리 확률로 강력한 우승 후보입니다. 경기는 저득점 양상으로 예상되며, 가장 가능성이 높은 스코어는 1-0이고 언더 2.5골의 확률은 56.1%입니다. 기마랑이스가 근소한 차이로 승리하는 것이 가장 유력한 결과로 보입니다.

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 따르면, 기마랑이스는 카사 피아와의 프리메이라 리가 경기에서 확실한 우승 후보로 나섭니다. 홈 강점은 λ 값 1.78로 반영되며, 이는 카사 피아의 원정 강점 λ = 0.63을 크게 앞섭니다. 이러한 공격 잠재력의 상당한 차이는 홈팀의 지배적인 성능을 예측하는 근거가 됩니다. 1X2 확률은 기마랑이스의 우위를 명확히 보여줍니다. 홈 승리는 60.2%, 무승부는 24.6%, 원정 승리는 겨우 15.2%입니다. 기대 득점(xG)은 이를 더욱 뒷받침하며, 기마랑이스가 1.80골, 카사 피아가 0.63골을 득점하여 총 기대 득점은 2.43골로 예측됩니다. 이는 기마랑이스가 상대방보다 거의 세 배 많은 골을 넣을 수 있음을 시사합니다. 시뮬레이션으로 확인된 가장 가능성이 높은 스코어라인은 기마랑이스의 1-0 승리이며, 이는 접전의 저득점 경기에 대한 기대를 강화합니다. 이는 BTTS(양 팀 득점) 확률이 39.2%로 낮다는 점에서도 반영되며, 기마랑이스의 클린시트 가능성이 상당히 높음을 나타냅니다. 총 득점과 관련하여, 데이터는 언더 게임을 강력히 시사합니다. 오버 1.5골은 71.0%의 확률을 가지지만, 언더 2.5골은 56.1%로 더 가능성이 높으며, 언더 3.5골은 77.5%로 매우 높은 확률을 보입니다. 이는 가장 가능성이 높은 스코어 1-0과 기마랑이스의 홈에서의 강력한 수비 잠재력과 완벽하게 일치합니다. 아시안 핸디캡 시장을 살펴보면, 기마랑이스가 어떤 마진으로든 승리할 확률(AH -0.5)은 64.9%로, 그들의 우승 후보 지위를 더욱 공고히 합니다. 기마랑이스의 무승부 시 베팅 환불 시나리오(AH +0)는 64.9%로 더욱 강력합니다. 그러나 기마랑이스가 두 골 이상 차이로 승리할 확률(AH -1.5)은 39.4%로 크게 떨어지는데, 이는 승리가 유력하지만 근소한 차이의 승리일 가능성이 더 높다는 것을 시사합니다. 양 팀 모두 풀 전력으로 보고되어 중요한 선수 결장은 이러한 통계적 예측을 방해하지 않을 것입니다. 데이터에 비추어 볼 때, 강력한 베팅 제안으로는 기마랑이스의 승리(60.2%), 언더 2.5골(56.1%), 또는 한 골 차 승리를 위한 아시안 핸디캡 -0.5 시장에서 기마랑이스(64.9%)가 포함됩니다.

O Guimarães é o grande favorito em casa contra o Casa Pia, com 60.2% de probabilidade de vitória. O jogo deverá ser de poucos golos, com o resultado mais provável de 1-0 e a probabilidade de Menos de 2.5 golos a 56.1%. Uma vitória apertada do Guimarães parece ser o desfecho mais provável.

Com base na nossa simulação Monte Carlo, o Guimarães entra neste confronto da Primeira Liga contra o Casa Pia como o claro favorito. A sua força em casa, refletida num valor λ de 1.78, supera significativamente a força fora de casa do Casa Pia, que é de λ = 0.63. Esta substancial diferença no potencial ofensivo sustenta a previsão de uma atuação dominante por parte da equipa da casa. As probabilidades 1X2 realçam a vantagem do Guimarães, com uma Vitória em Casa a 60.2%, em comparação com um Empate a 24.6% e uma Vitória Fora a meros 15.2%. Os Golos Esperados (xG) apoiam ainda mais esta análise, projetando o Guimarães a marcar 1.80 golos contra 0.63 do Casa Pia, resultando num total de 2.43 golos esperados. Isto sugere que o Guimarães poderá marcar quase três vezes mais golos do que os seus adversários. O resultado mais provável identificado pela simulação é uma vitória por 1-0 para o Guimarães, reforçando a expectativa de um encontro apertado e com poucos golos. Isto também se reflete na probabilidade de BTTS (Ambas as Equipas Marcam), que se situa num baixo 39.2%, indicando que um "clean sheet" para o Guimarães é bastante possível. Relativamente ao total de golos, os dados apontam fortemente para um jogo com "Menos" golos. Embora Mais de 1.5 golos tenha uma probabilidade de 71.0%, Menos de 2.5 golos é mais provável com 56.1%, e Menos de 3.5 golos é altamente provável com 77.5%. Isto alinha-se perfeitamente com o resultado mais provável de 1-0 e o forte potencial defensivo do Guimarães em casa. Analisando os mercados de Handicap Asiático, o Guimarães a vencer por qualquer margem (AH -0.5) tem uma probabilidade de 64.9%, solidificando ainda mais o seu favoritismo. Um cenário de "empate anula a aposta" (AH +0) para o Guimarães é ainda mais forte com 64.9%. No entanto, a vitória do Guimarães por uma margem de dois ou mais golos (AH -1.5) cai significativamente para 39.4%, sugerindo que, embora uma vitória seja provável, é mais provável que seja por uma margem estreita. Ambas as equipas são reportadas como estando na máxima força, o que significa que não haverá ausências significativas de jogadores para perturbar estas projeções estatísticas. Dados os dados, as propostas de apostas fortes incluem o Guimarães para vencer (60.2%), Menos de 2.5 golos (56.1%), ou Guimaraes no mercado de Handicap Asiático -0.5 (64.9%) para uma vitória por um golo de diferença.

根据模拟数据,吉马良斯在主场对阵卡萨皮亚是明显的赢家,胜率高达60.2%。比赛预计会是低得分,最可能比分是1-0,并且低于2.5球的概率为56.1%。吉马良斯以微弱优势取胜似乎是最可能的结果。

根据我们的蒙特卡洛模拟,吉马良斯在葡超联赛对阵卡萨皮亚的比赛中是明显的赢家。其主场实力,体现在λ值为1.78,显著高于卡萨皮亚的客场实力λ值0.63。进攻潜力的巨大差异是主队将占据主导地位的预测基础。 1X2赔率凸显了吉马良斯的优势,主场胜率为60.2%,而平局为24.6%,客场胜率仅为15.2%。预期进球数进一步支持了这一点,预测吉马良斯将打入1.80球,而卡萨皮亚将打入0.63球,总预期进球数为2.43。这表明吉马良斯可能比对手多进近三倍的球。 模拟确定的最可能比分是吉马良斯1-0获胜,这强化了比赛将是一场紧张、低得分的对决。这也反映在BTTS(两队都得分)的低概率39.2%中,表明吉马良斯很可能保持零失球。 关于总进球数,数据显示比赛强烈倾向于小球。虽然超过1.5球的概率为71.0%,但低于2.5球的可能性更高,为56.1%,而低于3.5球的概率非常高,为77.5%。这与最可能比分1-0以及吉马良斯强大的主场防守潜力完美契合。 审视亚洲让球盘市场,吉马良斯以任何优势获胜(AH -0.5)的概率为64.9%,进一步巩固了其优势地位。吉马良斯的平局退款方案(AH +0)甚至更强,为64.9%。然而,吉马良斯以两球或更多优势获胜(AH -1.5)的概率显著下降至39.4%,这表明尽管获胜可能性大,但更可能是一场小胜。两队都报道为全阵容出战,这意味着没有重要的球员缺席会干扰这些统计预测。根据数据,强烈的投注建议包括吉马良斯直接获胜(60.2%),低于2.5球(56.1%),或者吉马良斯在亚洲让球盘-0.5市场(64.9%)以一球优势获胜。

根據模擬數據,吉馬良斯在主場對陣卡薩皮亞是明顯的贏家,勝率高達60.2%。比賽預計會是低得分,最可能比分是1-0,並且低於2.5球的機率為56.1%。吉馬良斯以微弱優勢取勝似乎是最可能結果。

根據我們的蒙特卡洛模擬,吉馬良斯在本場葡超聯賽對陣卡薩皮亞的比賽中是明顯的熱門。其主場實力,體現在λ值為1.78,顯著高於卡薩皮亞的客場實力λ值0.63。進攻潛力的巨大差異是主隊將佔據主導地位的預測基礎。 1X2機率凸顯了吉馬良斯的優勢,主場勝率為60.2%,而平局為24.6%,客場勝率僅為15.2%。預期進球數進一步支持了這一點,預測吉馬良斯將打入1.80球,而卡薩皮亞將打入0.63球,總預期進球數為2.43。這表明吉馬良斯可能比對手多進近三倍的球。 模擬確定的最可能比分是吉馬良斯1-0獲勝,這強化了比賽將是一場緊張、低得分的對決。這也反映在BTTS(兩隊都得分)的低機率39.2%中,表明吉馬良斯很可能保持零失球。 關於總進球數,數據顯示比賽強烈傾向於小球。雖然超過1.5球的機率為71.0%,但低於2.5球的可能性更高,為56.1%,而低於3.5球的機率非常高,為77.5%。這與最可能比分1-0以及吉馬良斯強大的主場防守潛力完美契合。 審視亞洲讓球盤市場,吉馬良斯以任何優勢獲勝(AH -0.5)的機率為64.9%,進一步鞏固了其熱門地位。吉馬良斯的平局退款方案(AH +0)甚至更強,為64.9%。然而,吉馬良斯以兩球或更多優勢獲勝(AH -1.5)的機率顯著下降至39.4%,這表明儘管獲勝可能性大,但更可能是一場小勝。兩隊都報導為全陣容出戰,這意味著沒有重要的球員缺席會干擾這些統計預測。根據數據,強烈的投注建議包括吉馬良斯直接獲勝(60.2%),低於2.5球(56.1%),或者吉馬良斯在亞洲讓球盤-0.5市場(64.9%)以一球優勢獲勝。

Home Win: 60.2%, Draw: 24.6%, Away Win: 15.2%

Expected Goals: 2.4 (Home xG: 1.78, Away xG: 0.63)

Most Likely Score: 1-0

Over 2.5: 43.9%, BTTS: 39.2%

Predictions
Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga10 May 2026 • 16:00 UTC
Guimaraes
GuimaraesHome
VSNot Started
Casa Pia
Casa PiaAway

AI Match Preview

Pre-LineupMonte Carlo Simulation

WIN PROBABILITY

Guimaraes60.2%
Draw24.6%
Casa Pia15.2%

Most Likely Score

1-0

Expected Goals

2.4
Guimar: 1.78Casa P: 0.63

Over 2.5

43.9%

BTTS

39.2%

Pre-LineupOddsFlow Analysis

Guimaraes are strong favorites at home against Casa Pia, with a 60.2% probability of winning. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with the most likely score being 1-0 and Under 2.5 goals having a 56.1% chance. Guimaraes securing a narrow victory appears to be the most probable outcome.

Read Full Analysis

Based on our Monte Carlo simulation, Guimaraes enters this Primeira Liga fixture against Casa Pia as the clear favorite. Their home strength, reflected in a λ value of 1.78, significantly outweighs Casa Pia's away strength of λ = 0.63. This substantial difference in offensive potential underpins the prediction of a dominant performance from the home side. The 1X2 probabilities highlight Guimaraes' advantage, with a Home Win standing at 60.2%, compared to a Draw at 24.6% and an Away Win at a mere 15.2%. The Expected Goals further support this, projecting Guimaraes to score 1.80 goals against Casa Pia's 0.63, leading to a total expected goals of 2.43. This suggests Guimaraes could score almost three times as many goals as their opponents. The most likely scoreline identified by the simulation is a 1-0 victory for Guimaraes, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, low-scoring encounter. This is also reflected in the BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability, which stands at a low 39.2%, indicating that a clean sheet for Guimaraes is quite possible. Regarding goal totals, the data strongly points towards an Under game. While Over 1.5 goals has a 71.0% chance, Under 2.5 goals is more likely at 56.1%, and Under 3.5 goals is highly probable with a 77.5% chance. This aligns perfectly with the 1-0 most likely score and Guimaraes' strong defensive potential at home. Examining the Asian Handicap markets, Guimaraes winning by any margin (AH -0.5) holds a 64.9% probability, further solidifying their favoritism. A draw no bet scenario (AH +0) for Guimaraes is even stronger at 64.9%. However, Guimaraes winning by a margin of two goals or more (AH -1.5) drops significantly to 39.4%, suggesting that while a win is likely, it's more probable to be a narrow one. Both teams are reported to be at full strength, meaning no significant player absences will disrupt these statistical projections. Given the data, strong betting propositions include Guimaraes to win outright (60.2%), Under 2.5 goals (56.1%), or Guimaraes on the Asian Handicap -0.5 market (64.9%) for a single goal margin victory.

Team Comparison

AI-powered analysis

Predicted Winner
Guimaraes
xG
75.00
Guimaraes
xG
25.00
Casa Pia
WIN PROBABILITY
60%
25%
15%
GuimaraesDrawCasa Pia
83%Strength17%
82%Attacking18%
69%Defensive31%
75%Poisson25%
50%H2H Strength50%
40%H2H Goals60%
Guimaraes
Casa Pia

Team Lineups

Starting XI & Formation

Lineup data not available yet

Team lineups are usually announced 1 hour before kick-off. Please check back closer to match time.

Match Events

Goals, Cards & Substitutions

No events yet

Events will appear here once the match starts.

Live Statistics

Ball Possession, Shots, Corners & More

0Ball Possession0
0Total Shots0
0Shots on Target0
0Shots off Target0
0Corner Kicks0
0Fouls0
0Offsides0
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Goalkeeper Saves0
0Total Passes0
0Pass Accuracy0
0Expected Goals (xG)0

No statistics yet

Statistics will appear here once the match starts.

My Selections

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

No selections recorded yet

Add your first selection to track your position

Sign up to view AI Signals

Create a free account to access AI predictions, odds analysis, and signal history.

Pre-match Odds

GuimaraesGuimaraes
0-0
Casa PiaCasa Pia04:00 PM
No odds data available

Match has not started yet

⚠️
These predictions are generated by AI and should be used for informational purposes only. Please use responsibly. 18+    •    These predictions are generated by AI and should be used for informational purposes only. Please use responsibly. 18+    •    These predictions are generated by AI and should be used for informational purposes only. Please use responsibly. 18+