Will USA advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives USA a 65.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can USA win the 2026 World Cup?

USA has a 1.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 55, Defense: 46, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is USA's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

USA has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 55, Defense 46, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football.

Who are USA's star players at World Cup 2026?

USA's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Freeman (Defender, OPR 72, OPR 72); R. Pepi (Attacker, OPR 70, 19G 4A (1857min)); S. Berhalter (Midfielder, OPR 69, 7G 5A (1813min)); C. Richards (Defender, OPR 69, 3G 0A (4807min)); C. Pulišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 12G 6A (2152min)).

How strong is USA's squad for World Cup 2026?

USA's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.4, Midfield control 54.4, Defensive solidity 46.3, GK rating 82.7. Lambda attack 1.39, lambda defense 0.93. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 84. Top scorer: R. Pepi (19 goals).

USA — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53종합

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡공격

⚙️미드필드

🛡️수비

🧤골키핑

26인원

25.9평균 나이

60.9평균 OVR

84.0깊이 점수

53종합

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡공격

⚙️미드필드

🛡️수비

🧤골키핑

26인원

25.9평균 나이

60.9평균 OVR

84.0깊이 점수

스타 선수

A. Freeman

Defender

OPR 72

R. Pepi

Attacker

19G 4A (1857min)

S. Berhalter

Midfielder

7G 5A (1813min)

C. Richards

Defender

3G 0A (4807min)

C. Pulišić

Attacker

12G 6A (2152min)

대회 확률

1.1%우승우승

1.1%

65.2%조별 통과조별 통과

65.2%

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

퀴라소

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

아이티

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

남아프리카

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

이라크

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

우즈베키스탄

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

이집트

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

카타르

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

튀니지

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

가나

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

호주

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

뉴질랜드

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

사우디아라비아

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

파나마

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

멕시코

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

요르단

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

알제리

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

캐나다

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

파라과이

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

콩고민주공화국

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

에콰도르

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

노르웨이

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

스코틀랜드

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

콜롬비아

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

일본

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

모로코

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

스위스

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

오스트리아

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

스웨덴

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

세네갈

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

우루과이

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

크로아티아

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

튀르키예

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

네덜란드

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

브라질

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

벨기에

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

아르헨티나

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

스페인

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

독일

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

포르투갈

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

잉글랜드

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

프랑스

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

퀴라소

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

아이티

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

남아프리카

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

이라크

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

우즈베키스탄

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

이집트

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

카타르

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

튀니지

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

가나

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

호주

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

뉴질랜드

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

사우디아라비아

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

파나마

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

멕시코

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

요르단

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

알제리

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

캐나다

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

파라과이

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

콩고민주공화국

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

에콰도르

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

노르웨이

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

스코틀랜드

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

콜롬비아

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

일본

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

모로코

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

스위스

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

오스트리아

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

스웨덴

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

세네갈

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

우루과이

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

크로아티아

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

튀르키예

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

네덜란드

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

브라질

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

벨기에

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

아르헨티나

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

스페인

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

독일

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

포르투갈

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

잉글랜드

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

프랑스

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

미국

OddsFlow AI Analysis

스타 선수

대회 확률

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

무료 라이브 AI 시그널 1경기 — 딜레이 없음

미국

OddsFlow AI Analysis

스타 선수

대회 확률

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

무료 라이브 AI 시그널 1경기 — 딜레이 없음