## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 gave Fiorentina a 46.5% home win probability, with 1-0 as the most likely scoreline. Over 2.5 goals carried a 44.1% probability, implying the model leaned toward a tighter game. Expected total goals sat at 2.5. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Fiorentina won 1-0 at home. One goal scored, zero conceded. Exactly the controlled, low-scoring contest the model's scoreline suggested. ✅ **Right:** Winner called correctly — Fiorentina home win at 46.5% landed. The exact 1-0 scoreline matched. The under 2.5 outcome was correct, with only 1 goal scored. ❌ **Wrong:** Expected total goals of 2.5 overestimated the actual output by 1.5 goals. Despite the model correctly predicting the 1-0 score, the expected goals figure pointed toward a more open contest than what unfolded. The λ values (1.45 vs 0.95) implied more attacking output from both sides than materialised. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** Winner ✅ | Exact Score ✅ | Over/Under Direction ✅ | Expected Goals Total ❌. Three of four core metrics correct. The goal volume projection was the clear miss. Verify this prediction independently: [oddsflow.community/verify/fiorentina-lazio-serieA] 💬 Fiorentina controlled this without needing a second goal — does a tight 1-0 reflect genuine defensive solidity, or did Lazio simply underperform their λ=0.95 attacking expectation? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/fiorentina-vs-lazio-1378178) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*