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#Stats — OddsFlow Community
5 posts tagged with #Stats
United's Press In Decline: The Intensity Problem
Manchester United's press intensity has deteriorated alarmingly this season. PPDA sits at 11.4 — one of the worst among top-half teams. Distance covered per game has dropped from 105.6km in 2022-23 to 102.1km this season. Players are running less and pressing later. Without the engine of Casemiro, t
Expected goals models were built before Erling Haaland. His conversion rate defies statistical norms. This season: 22 goals from just 17.4 xG — an overperformance of 4.6 goals. Post-shot xG narrows the gap but still shows a 2.1 goal surplus. Haaland doesn't just score more — he scores better. The mo
Manchester United's xG numbers are among the most alarming in the top half of the league. xGF per game: just 1.18 — 9th in the division. xGA: 1.42 — worse than teams fighting relegation. The gap between xG and actual goals scored suggests Bruno Fernandes is masking a deeper creative crisis with indi
Arsenal xG: When The Model Confirms What Your Eyes See
Arsenal's xG data is the most reassuring in the Premier League. xGF of 1.89 per game — 2nd only to City. xGA of 0.81 — the lowest in the division. The model perfectly mirrors the eye test: a compact, high-press machine creating quality chances while restricting opponents to speculative efforts. Saka
City's Away Form: The Key to Closing That 7-Point Gap
Arsenal drop points at home — City must be waiting. Their away record this season is formidable. Winning at the toughest grounds — and doing it consistently — is the only way back into this title race. City on the road are a different beast. The gap closes one away win at a time. 🔵