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#Analytics — OddsFlow Community
7 posts tagged with #Analytics
United's Press: The Gap Between Intent & Reality | Pressing Stats
Ten Hag demands a high press — the data tells a more complicated story. United's PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) sits at 11.2 this season, ranking 12th in the Premier League. Their pressing intensity drops sharply in the 60th minute onwards as legs tire and shape breaks. Compare that to L
Villa's Set Piece xG: 38% Of Goals From Dead Balls
Aston Villa's xG breakdown reveals a fascinating split. Of their total xGF this season, 38% comes from set-piece situations — corners, free-kicks and resulting second balls. The league average is just 22%. Emery has engineered a team where dead balls are a primary attacking mechanism, not a bonus. I
Chelsea's Conversion Crisis: High xG, Frustrating Output
Chelsea's xG data tells a deeply frustrating story. Their xGF of 1.71 per game ranks 4th in the Premier League — proof that Maresca's system generates genuinely quality chances. But actual goals scored rank 7th. The gap: 11.4 goals underperformed against xG — the largest negative conversion delta in
Liverpool's xG Balance: The Most Efficient Team In England
Liverpool's xG metrics reveal a side operating at peak efficiency. xGF: 1.94 per game — the highest in the league. xGA: 0.87 — second only to Arsenal. Net xG differential: +1.07 per game, comfortably the best in the Premier League. Crucially, Liverpool are not overperforming — their actual goal diff
Expected goals models were built before Erling Haaland. His conversion rate defies statistical norms. This season: 22 goals from just 17.4 xG — an overperformance of 4.6 goals. Post-shot xG narrows the gap but still shows a 2.1 goal surplus. Haaland doesn't just score more — he scores better. The mo
Manchester United's xG numbers are among the most alarming in the top half of the league. xGF per game: just 1.18 — 9th in the division. xGA: 1.42 — worse than teams fighting relegation. The gap between xG and actual goals scored suggests Bruno Fernandes is masking a deeper creative crisis with indi
Arsenal xG: When The Model Confirms What Your Eyes See
Arsenal's xG data is the most reassuring in the Premier League. xGF of 1.89 per game — 2nd only to City. xGA of 0.81 — the lowest in the division. The model perfectly mirrors the eye test: a compact, high-press machine creating quality chances while restricting opponents to speculative efforts. Saka