Will USA advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives USA a 65.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can USA win the 2026 World Cup?

USA has a 1.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 55, Defense: 46, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is USA's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

USA has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 55, Defense 46, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football.

Who are USA's star players at World Cup 2026?

USA's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Freeman (Defender, OPR 72, OPR 72); R. Pepi (Attacker, OPR 70, 19G 4A (1857min)); S. Berhalter (Midfielder, OPR 69, 7G 5A (1813min)); C. Richards (Defender, OPR 69, 3G 0A (4807min)); C. Pulišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 12G 6A (2152min)).

How strong is USA's squad for World Cup 2026?

USA's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.4, Midfield control 54.4, Defensive solidity 46.3, GK rating 82.7. Lambda attack 1.39, lambda defense 0.93. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 84. Top scorer: R. Pepi (19 goals).

USA — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53Общий

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡Атака

⚙️Полузащита

🛡️Защита

🧤Вратарь

26Размер

25.9Ср. возраст

60.9Ср. OVR

84.0Счёт глубины

53Общий

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡Атака

⚙️Полузащита

🛡️Защита

🧤Вратарь

26Размер

25.9Ср. возраст

60.9Ср. OVR

84.0Счёт глубины

Звёздные игроки

A. Freeman

Defender

OPR 72

R. Pepi

Attacker

19G 4A (1857min)

S. Berhalter

Midfielder

7G 5A (1813min)

C. Richards

Defender

3G 0A (4807min)

C. Pulišić

Attacker

12G 6A (2152min)

Вероятность на турнире

1.1%ЧемпионЧемпион

1.1%

65.2%Выход из группыВыход из группы

65.2%

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

Кюрасао

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Гаити

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

ЮАР

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Ирак

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Узбекистан

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

Египет

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

Катар

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Тунис

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Гана

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Австралия

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Новая Зеландия

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Саудовская Аравия

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Панама

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Мексика

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Иордания

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Алжир

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Канада

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Парагвай

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

ДР Конго

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Эквадор

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Норвегия

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Шотландия

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Колумбия

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Япония

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Марокко

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Швейцария

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Австрия

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Швеция

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Сенегал

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Уругвай

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Хорватия

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Турция

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

Нидерланды

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Бразилия

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Бельгия

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Аргентина

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Испания

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Германия

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Португалия

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Англия

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Франция

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

Кюрасао

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

Гаити

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

ЮАР

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

Ирак

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Узбекистан

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

Египет

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

Катар

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Тунис

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

Гана

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Австралия

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Новая Зеландия

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Саудовская Аравия

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Панама

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Мексика

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Иордания

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

Алжир

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

Канада

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Парагвай

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

ДР Конго

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Эквадор

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Норвегия

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

Шотландия

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Колумбия

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Япония

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

Марокко

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Швейцария

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

Австрия

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Швеция

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

Сенегал

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Уругвай

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Хорватия

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Турция

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

Нидерланды

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Бразилия

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Бельгия

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Аргентина

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

Испания

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Германия

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

Португалия

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Англия

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Франция

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

США

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Звёздные игроки

Вероятность на турнире

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay

США

OddsFlow AI Analysis

Звёздные игроки

Вероятность на турнире

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Get 1 FREE Live AI Signal — No Delay