## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Nice 1-1 Le Havre 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 flagged this Ligue 1 fixture as a tightly contested match, assigning a 35.9% probability to a draw — the model's top outcome. The most likely score was projected as 1-1, with expected total goals of 2.7 and an even 50/50 split on the Over 2.5 line. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Nice and Le Havre shared the points in a 1-1 draw, producing exactly 2 goals across 90 minutes. ✅ **Right:** The predicted outcome (Draw, 35.9%) landed correctly. Even more precisely, the exact scoreline of 1-1 matched the model's top score projection. The Under 2.5 result also aligned — our 50.0% Over probability implied equal weight on Under, and 2 goals kept it under the threshold. ❌ **Wrong:** The expected goals total of 2.7 slightly overshot reality. While the margin is small, the model leaned toward a moderately higher-scoring match than what unfolded, suggesting defensive solidity — particularly from Le Havre — was underweighted. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** Outcome ✅ | Exact Score ✅ | Over/Under direction ✅ | xGoals model (2.7 vs 2 actual) ⚠️ — minor overestimation. 20 live signals detected across HANDICAP, MONEYLINE_1X2, and OVER_UNDER markets during the match. 💬 Was Le Havre's defensive discipline the real story here, or did Nice simply underperform their attacking potential? 🔗 [View full verification log at OddsFlow](#) 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/nice-vs-le-havre-1387955) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*