## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 gave Mallorca a 37.9% home win probability — slim favorites — with the most likely score projected at 2-1. Over 2.5 goals carried a 58.2% probability, and Both Teams to Score was flagged at 61.4%. The model also highlighted Rayo as holding meaningful away value. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Mallorca won convincingly, 3-0. A clean sheet, no Rayo goal, and a three-goal margin that outpaced expectations. ✅ **Right:** - Winner: HOME correctly identified, even as a narrow favorite - Over 2.5 goals: 3 total goals confirmed the threshold — correct - Expected total goals: Model projected exactly 3.0 — spot on ❌ **Wrong:** - Scoreline: 2-1 was the model's most likely score — the actual 3-0 was notably different in both margin and defensive outcome - Both Teams to Score: Projected at 61.4% — Rayo failed to score, making this a clear miss - Rayo away value: The model flagged upside on Rayo — that confidence was not rewarded 📊 **Accuracy Log:** Winner and goal total landed correctly, but the model underestimated Mallorca's defensive dominance and overestimated Rayo's attacking output. Two directional misses on BTTS and scoreline structure. 💬 Was this a Rayo off-day, or did Mallorca's positive lineup shock play a bigger role than the model weighted? 🔍 Full verification data: [oddsflow.com/verify/mallorca-rayo-laliga](#) 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/mallorca-vs-rayo-vallecano-1391124) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*