## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 model assigned Genoa a 43.3% win probability, making them the narrow favorite on home advantage and expected goals of 2.6. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-0, and Over 2.5 goals carried a 48.3% probability — just below the flip point. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Genoa won 2-1, confirming the home victory. Three total goals were scored, pushing the match over the 2.5 threshold. ✅ **Right:** The predicted winner was correct — Genoa took all three points, aligning with the model's top outcome at 43.3%. The expected goals figure of 2.6 was also close to the actual total of 3, showing reasonable calibration on match tempo. ❌ **Wrong:** The most likely score (1-0) did not land — the actual 2-1 result produced more goals than that scenario anticipated. The Over 2.5 probability sat at 48.3%, meaning the model leaned slightly toward the under, which proved incorrect. Both misses are noted without adjustment. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1/3 primary markets correct (winner ✅ | score ❌ | over/under ❌). Nine live signals were detected across handicap, moneyline, and over/under markets during the match. 🔍 Verified at: oddsflow.com/audit/genoa-sassuolo-sa 💬 The model nearly nailed the goal total — does a 0.4 expected goals gap explain the over/under miss, or was this within normal variance for a 48.3% call? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/genoa-vs-sassuolo-1378179) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*