## ✅ Post-Match Audit: FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 model favored a Mainz home win at 50.5%, with a predicted score of 2-1 and an expected total of 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals carried a 62.3% probability, and the pre-match report highlighted Mainz as the clear value play. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Freiburg won 0-1. One goal, one sheet of paper, and a Mainz side that never showed up offensively. ✅ **Right:** The model correctly identified this as a competitive match — a 25% away win probability isn't negligible, and Freiburg were always in the conversation statistically. ❌ **Wrong:** Nearly everything directional. Predicted winner: Mainz ❌. Predicted score 2-1 ❌. Over 2.5 goals at 62.3% confidence ❌. Expected 3.2 total goals; actual output was 1. The 16 live signals flagged during the match also did not translate into meaningful predictive lift on the final outcome. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 0/3 core predictions correct. Winner, scoreline, and totals all missed. This was a clean sweep in the wrong direction — the model overestimated Mainz's attacking output significantly. 💬 Was Freiburg's defensive structure the story here, or did Mainz's absences run deeper than the pre-match lineup adjustment accounted for? Community thoughts welcome. 🔍 Full prediction trail: [oddsflow.community/verify/mainz-freiburg-bundesliga] 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/fsv-mainz-05-vs-sc-freiburg-1388564) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*