AI Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna enters this home fixture against Espanyol as strong favorites, supported by superior team strength and expected goal metrics. Despite a minor post-lineup probability dip, the model identifies a significant value bet on an Osasuna home win, offering a substantial edge against the market.

Our pre-match analysis, leveraging Monte Carlo simulation, positions Osasuna as clear favorites for their home clash against Espanyol. Osasuna's home strength is calculated at λ = 1.92, significantly higher than Espanyol's away strength of λ = 0.98, indicating a considerable disparity in underlying performance capabilities. This strength difference translates directly into the 1x2 probabilities, with Osasuna having a 55.3% chance of victory. A draw is predicted at 24.3%, while an Espanyol away win is deemed less likely at 20.4%. The expected goals further reinforce this view, projecting Osasuna to score 1.94 goals against Espanyol's 1.01, leading to a total Expected Goals of 2.95. Consequently, the most likely final score is identified as a 2-0 victory for Osasuna. Regarding scoring markets, the simulation indicates a 55.0% chance for Both Teams To Score (BTTS), suggesting goals from both sides are slightly more probable than not. The Over/Under markets point towards a moderate-scoring affair; Over 2.5 goals has a 57.4% probability, while Over 1.5 goals is highly likely at 81.0%. Player absences include Javi Galán for Osasuna (defender) and Fernando Calero (defender) with Roberto Fernández (attacker) for Espanyol. Espanyol's missing attacker, in particular, could hinder their already lower attacking output. The confirmed lineups show Sergio Herrera and Ante Budimir starting for Osasuna, while Espanyol features Marko Dmitrović and a front two of Edu Expósito and Kike García. Interestingly, the post-lineup analysis revealed a "lineup shock" where Osasuna's win probability decreased by 3.0% compared to pre-lineup figures, with draw and away win probabilities slightly increasing. While this suggests the confirmed XI is marginally weaker than initially projected, the overall favoritism for Osasuna remains firmly in place. From a betting perspective, the model highlights a strong market edge. We identify a significant value bet on Osasuna to win (HOME) at odds of 2.23, which offers a substantial +14.2% edge compared to the market's implied probability. This makes the Osasuna outright win the best value proposition for this match.

AI Signal Settlement Results

8 of 27 bets won. Total P/L: $-545.46

• 0' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.23 → LOST (-10.00)
• 0' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.17 → LOST (-38.00)
• 14' — HANDICAP HOME (-0.5) @ 2.2 → LOST (-60.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.35 → LOST (-22.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.35 → LOST (-60.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.31 → LOST (-50.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.35 → LOST (-60.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.31 → LOST (-70.00)
• 15' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.35 → LOST (-37.00)
• 25' — OVER_UNDER OVER (1.5) @ 1.83 → WON (+49.80)
• 25' — OVER_UNDER OVER (1.5) @ 1.83 → WON (+49.80)
• 27' — HANDICAP HOME (0.5) @ 2 → WON (+123.00)
• 37' — HANDICAP HOME (0.5) @ 1.95 → WON (+118.75)
• 49' — HANDICAP HOME (-0.5) @ 2.15 → LOST (-60.00)
• 49' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3.5) @ 1.571 → WON (+70.23)
• 49' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.5 → LOST (-60.00)
• 49' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.56 → LOST (-15.00)
• 49' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 2.68 → LOST (-50.00)
• 60' — MONEYLINE_1X2 AWAY (0) @ 1.7 → WON (+42.00)
• 61' — MONEYLINE_1X2 AWAY (0) @ 1.666 → WON (+39.96)
• 67' — MONEYLINE_1X2 AWAY (0) @ 1.55 → WON (+33.00)
• 68' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.75) @ 2.08 → LOST (-100.00)
• 68' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.5) @ 1.79 → LOST (-60.00)
• 69' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.5) @ 1.82 → LOST (-60.00)
• 69' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.5) @ 1.82 → LOST (-60.00)
• 69' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.75) @ 2.08 → LOST (-100.00)
• 69' — OVER_UNDER OVER (3.75) @ 2.08 → LOST (-100.00)