## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Parma 1–1 Napoli 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 flagged Napoli as clear favorites at 52.3% win probability, with a predicted score of 0–1 and an expected 2.6 total goals. A market edge on Parma (+0.5 Asian Handicap) was highlighted as undervalued, and the pre-match AI report noted Napoli's defensive absences as a concern. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Parma held Napoli to a 1–1 draw, with both sides finding the net in a two-goal affair. ✅ **Right:** The under 2.5 goals outcome landed correctly (2 goals, under threshold). The market edge call on Parma not losing proved accurate — the +0.5 Asian Handicap signal passed. Total goals landing close to the 2.6 expected figure was directionally sound. ❌ **Wrong:** The predicted winner was Napoli — that was incorrect. The draw outcome (26.3% probability) materialized over the favored away win. The most likely score of 0–1 missed entirely; Parma scored, changing the scoreline dynamic our model underweighted. The 48.0% over 2.5 label was marked ✅ in the data above, but with only 2 goals, this should read as **under** — that label requires correction in our logs. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1/3 core predictions correct (total goals direction). Winner and exact score both missed. One live signal (Handicap) confirmed post-match. 🔍 [Verify on OddsFlow](#) 💬 Did Napoli's defensive absences play a bigger role than our model weighted — or was this simply Parma's day? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/parma-vs-napoli-1378181) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*