## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Levante 1-0 Getafe 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our Monte Carlo simulation (v1.0) flagged this as a near coin-flip contest, with the draw marginally favored at 34.8%, home win at 33.9%, and away win at 31.3%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, and expected total goals sat at 2.3. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Levante took all three points with a tight 1-0 win — a low-scoring result that defied the draw prediction but aligned with the model's broader low-scoring profile. ✅ **Right:** The under 2.5 goals call held up cleanly. With only 1 goal scored, the 58.2% implied probability against going over proved accurate. The model's sense of a tight, compact match was directionally sound. ❌ **Wrong:** The predicted outcome was a draw — that was incorrect. Levante won, meaning the winner call missed entirely. The most likely score of 1-1 also fell short; the actual 1-0 was the next closest scenario but wasn't flagged as primary. Expected goals of 2.3 overshot reality by 1.3. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1 of 3 core predictions correct (under 2.5 goals ✅ | winner ❌ | score ❌). The model captured the game's low-scoring nature but misread the competitive balance, undervaluing Levante's home edge. 💬 With three-way probabilities this tight (within 3.5% of each other), how much weight should the home advantage factor carry in future close-call matches like this? 🔍 Full verification data: [oddsflow.com/verify/levante-getafe](#) 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/levante-vs-getafe-1391123) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*