## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Toulouse 0-4 Lille 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our Monte Carlo simulation (montecarlo_v1.0_POST) favored a Draw at 35.1%, with a 1-1 most likely scoreline. The model flagged value on Toulouse and identified the Asian Handicap +0.5 as a strong value play, suggesting the market was overestimating Lille. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Lille won convincingly, 0-4. A dominant away performance that wasn't remotely close to our projected outcome. ✅ **Right:** 7 live signals were detected during the match across HANDICAP, OVER/UNDER, and MONEYLINE markets — suggesting in-play data captured the shifting momentum, even if pre-match modeling didn't. ❌ **Wrong:** Nearly everything pre-match. Winner prediction missed (Draw predicted, Away won). Score missed entirely (1-1 vs 0-4). Over 2.5 was flagged at only 47.4% — the match produced 4 goals, clearing that threshold comfortably. Expected total goals of 2.5 fell short by 1.5. The model actively identified value *against* Lille, which proved costly in directional accuracy. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 0/3 pre-match core predictions correct. Winner ❌ | Score ❌ | Over 2.5 ❌. A full miss across all primary outputs. 🔍 Full prediction record available at **oddsflow.com/verify** 💬 Was Lille's dominance a tactical outlier, or did our model systematically underweight their away form coming into this fixture? Community thoughts welcome. 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/toulouse-vs-lille-1387958) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*