## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 model favored Manchester City at 41.5%, with the most likely score projected as 1-2. Over 2.5 goals was flagged at 63.3% confidence, and BTTS Yes carried a 65.3% probability. Expected total goals sat at 3.3. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Manchester City won convincingly 0-3. Chelsea failed to score, City kept a clean sheet, and the margin was larger than any single projected scoreline anticipated. ✅ **Right:** Direction was correct — Away win called at 41.5%, and City delivered. The Over 2.5 threshold was hit exactly (3 goals). Expected total goals of 3.3 landed remarkably close to the actual 3. ❌ **Wrong:** The 1-2 most likely score was off on both ends. Chelsea were blanked entirely, making BTTS Yes (65.3% confidence) a clear miss — one of our more notable errors here. The pre-match AI report also highlighted a "value" angle on a Chelsea victory, which did not materialize in any form. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** Winner ✅ | Score ❌ | Over 2.5 ✅ | Expected Goals ✅ | BTTS ❌ | 8 live signals flagged across HANDICAP and MONEYLINE_1X2 markets. Two from five headline metrics missed. 🔍 Verify this prediction in full: [oddsflow.com/verify/epl-che-mci] 💬 Was City's clean sheet a tactical surprise, or did our model underweight Chelsea's attacking struggles entering this fixture? Drop your read below. 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/chelsea-vs-manchester-city-1379282) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*