OddsFlow World Cup 2026 Win Rate Data — Every Number, Every Market, Every Day
This is the complete, verified performance dataset from OddsFlow's World Cup 2026 campaign. No cherry-picking. No hiding behind aggregates. Every number is published.
All results can be independently verified at /worldcup/performance and /performance/verification-proof.
1. Overall Performance Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Total Bets | 713 |
|---|---|
| Total Matches Covered | 44 |
| Overall Win Rate | 49.2% |
| Total P/L | +$69,381 |
| Average P/L per Match | +$1,577 |
| Average P/L per Bet | +$97 |
| Best Single Day | Jun 22: +$66,916 (Norway vs Senegal) |
| Worst Single Day | Jun 14: -$27,473 (England) |
2. Performance by Market
| Market | Bets | Win Rate | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Asian Handicap (AH) | ~280 | 52.1% | +$38,400 | +13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/Under (O/U) | ~250 | 49.6% | +$22,800 | +9.1% |
| 1X2 Moneyline | ~183 | 44.8% | +$8,181 | +4.5% |
| Total | 713 | 49.2% | +$69,381 | +9.7% |
3. Performance by Time Period
| Period | Dates | Bets | Win Rate | P/L |
|---|
| Before Calibration | Jun 11-17 | ~310 | 36% | -$89,814 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| After Calibration | Jun 18-23 | ~403 | 64% | +$159,195 |
| Overall | Jun 11-23 | 713 | 49.2% | +$69,381 |
- 1Live signal layer added — scanning 10+ bookmakers every 10-20 seconds during matches
- 2Model parameter adjustment — recalibrating the Dixon-Coles attack/defense parameters for tournament conditions
4. Top 10 Most Profitable Matches
| Rank | Match | Score | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 1 | Norway vs Senegal | 3-2 | +$66,916 | +99% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Uruguay (match) | — | +$27,900 | — |
| 3 | Japan vs Tunisia | 4-0 | +$25,932 | — |
| 4 | Morocco (match) | — | +$22,864 | — |
| 5 | Germany vs Curacao | 7-1 | +$17,760 | — |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | 1-1 | +$9,708 | — |
| 7 | Belgium vs Iran | 0-0 | +$5,490 | — |
| 8 | Algeria vs Jordan | 2-1 | +$2,850 | — |
5. Top 10 Biggest Losses
We publish losses. Here are our worst.
| Rank | Match | P/L |
|---|
| 1 | Sweden vs Tunisia | -$27,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | -$27,473 |
| 3 | Iraq-Norway | -$19,697 |
| 4 | Australia vs Turkiye | -$19,500 |
| 5 | Argentina | -$17,866 |
| 6 | Qatar vs Switzerland | -$17,450 |
| 7 | Spain | -$10,000 |
| 8 | France vs Iraq | -$6,795 |
Read the full context: OddsFlow Transparency Report
6. Daily P/L Tracker
| Day | Date | Key Events | Cumulative |
|---|
| Day 1-3 | Jun 11-13 | Group stage begins | — |
| Day 4 | Jun 14 | England -$27,473, Argentina -$17,866 | Deep negative |
| Day 5-6 | Jun 15-16 | Mixed results | — |
| Day 7 | Jun 17 | End of pre-calibration period | -$89,814 |
| Day 8 | Jun 18 | Live signals activated | Recovery begins |
| Day 9-10 | Jun 19-20 | Morocco, Germany matches | Positive |
| Day 11 | Jun 21 | Steady gains | — |
| Day 12 | Jun 22 | Norway +$66,916, France -$6,795 | Strong positive |
| Day 13 | Jun 23 | Final group matches | +$69,381 |
|---|
7. What the Data Tells Us
Asian Handicap is the Strongest Market
AH produced 52.1% win rate and +$38,400 in profit. The Dixon-Coles model's team-strength differential translates most directly into handicap predictions.
Post-Calibration Performance is Sustainable
The 64% win rate achieved after June 18 was not a fluke. It was driven by a systematic change (adding live signals + recalibrating model parameters), not luck.
Live Signals Improved O/U Performance the Most
Before calibration, O/U was the weakest market. After adding live signals, O/U became the second strongest. Live data about match tempo, goal timing, and tactical shifts dramatically improved predictions.
We Publish Everything
OddsFlow is one of the only prediction platforms that publishes both wins AND losses with specific dollar amounts. There is no survivorship bias in this data.
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*All results are verified at /worldcup/performance. Predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always bet responsibly.*