AI Pre-Match Analysis

Girona enters this match as the statistical favorite with a 42.5% win probability and a most likely score of 2-1 against Real Sociedad. Despite Girona's home advantage and offensive strength, the model identifies significant value in betting on an Away win for Real Sociedad, showing a 4.1% edge over the market.

This La Liga clash sees Girona host Real Sociedad, with post-lineup data indicating Girona as the slight favorite. Girona boasts a stronger offensive λ of 1.57 compared to Real Sociedad's 1.28. The Monte Carlo simulation assigns a 42.5% probability to a Girona victory, a 26.9% chance for a draw, and a 30.6% probability for a Real Sociedad win. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of the home side. Expected Goals for the match stand at 2.92, with Girona projected to score 1.62 goals and Real Sociedad 1.30 goals. Both Teams To Score (BTTS) is highly probable at 59.6%, and the Over 2.5 goals market shows a slight lean to the Over at 56.2%. Both teams are grappling with key absences: Girona misses defenders Hugo Rincón and D. Blind, alongside attacker V. Vanat. Real Sociedad is without midfielders Brais Méndez and Carlos Soler, attacker Gonçalo Guedes, and defender Zubeldia. These personnel impacts are already factored into the team strength ratings. The confirmed starting lineups (Girona: Gazzaniga, Arnau Martínez, Francés, Reis, Moreno, Iván Martín, Witsel, Ounahi, Tsygankov, Bryan Gil, Joel Roca; Real Sociedad: Remiro, Aramburu, Jon Martin, Ćaleta-Car, Sergio Gómez, Kubo, Herrera, Gorrotxategi, Barrenetxea, Sučić, Oyarzabal) resulted in a minor lineup shock. The home win probability increased by a modest 0.7%, while the away win probability decreased by 1.4%, shifting slightly towards Girona. Crucially, the model identifies a significant market edge on a **Real Sociedad Away win**. The model's calculated probability of 30.6% for an away victory is considerably higher than the market's 26.5%, presenting a 4.1% value edge. This suggests the market is undervaluing Real Sociedad's chances of securing an outright win.

AI Signal Settlement Results

24 of 30 bets won. Total P/L: $891.32

• 0' — MONEYLINE_1X2 AWAY (0) @ 3.65 → LOST (-15.00)
• 0' — MONEYLINE_1X2 AWAY (0) @ 4 → LOST (-10.00)
• 10' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.94 → WON (+47.00)
• 10' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.93 → WON (+13.95)
• 10' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.925 → WON (+55.50)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.88 → WON (+16.72)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.92 → WON (+46.00)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.85 → WON (+51.00)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.88 → WON (+13.20)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.92 → WON (+46.00)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.85 → WON (+51.00)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.88 → WON (+15.84)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.92 → WON (+46.00)
• 15' — HANDICAP AWAY (-0.5) @ 1.85 → WON (+51.00)
• 24' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (2.5) @ 1.666 → WON (+39.96)
• 25' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (2.5) @ 1.666 → WON (+39.96)
• 25' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (2.5) @ 1.666 → WON (+39.96)
• 28' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 3.65 → LOST (-51.00)
• 28' — HANDICAP HOME (0.5) @ 1.825 → WON (+56.92)
• 28' — HANDICAP HOME (0.5) @ 1.825 → WON (+49.50)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3) @ 2.07 → WON (+53.50)
• 28' — HANDICAP HOME (0.5) @ 1.825 → WON (+49.50)
• 28' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 3.5 → LOST (-60.00)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3.5) @ 1.615 → WON (+63.96)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3.25) @ 1.87 → WON (+87.00)
• 28' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 3.5 → LOST (-60.00)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3.5) @ 1.615 → WON (+63.34)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3.25) @ 1.87 → WON (+87.00)
• 28' — OVER_UNDER UNDER (3) @ 2.07 → WON (+53.50)
• 28' — MONEYLINE_1X2 HOME (0) @ 3.65 → LOST (-50.00)