## ✅ Post-Match Audit: FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 flagged FC Köln as home favorites at 45.0% win probability, supported by Werder Bremen's notable absences. The model projected a 2-1 final scoreline and set Over 2.5 goals at 55.7% probability, with an expected total of 2.9 goals. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Köln won comfortably 3-1, producing 4 total goals — a slightly higher-scoring outcome than the model anticipated. ✅ **Right:** - Winner direction: Home win correctly identified (45.0% probability delivered) - Over 2.5 goals: Confirmed with 4 goals scored - Match dynamic: Köln's home advantage and Bremen's absences proved genuinely influential ❌ **Wrong:** - Scoreline: Model's most likely score was 2-1 — the actual 3-1 reflects one additional Köln goal that the distribution didn't centre on - Expected goals (2.9) undershot reality by 1.1 goals — the model underestimated Köln's attacking output on the night 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 2 of 3 core predictions correct (winner ✅, over/under ✅, scoreline ❌). The directional read was solid; the goal volume was moderately underestimated. Live signals (7 PASSED across HANDICAP, OVER_UNDER, MONEYLINE_1X2) aligned with the final outcome. 🔗 Full verification record: oddsflow.com/verify/koe-wer-bundesliga 💬 Did Köln's third goal change how you read their remaining home fixtures this season? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/1-fc-k-ln-vs-werder-bremen-1388562) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*