Trabzonspor0 - 3Gençlerbirliği S.K.
TrabzonsporWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 35', 43', 46' — and still finish $-433?
Match Overview
Trabzonspor hosted Gençlerbirliği S.K. in the Süper Lig, finishing 0-3. Goals: A. Traore (45'), F. Tongya (88'), M. Mimaroglu (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-433.00 (ROI: -98.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.88; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.72 to 3.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 40.5%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.3% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.99. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-5.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 22.9%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 20.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $266. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 18.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-266.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 0-1 at 46'. A. Traore scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $158. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-158.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 47.6% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 48.8% (21.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.3% vs market's 48.8% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 49.5% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 60.4% vs market's 40.0% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-5.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-136.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-138.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-154.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63–37 in Trabzonspor's favor. Trabzonspor had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Trabzonspor 0.58 — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.64. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -98.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-5.00.
A tough session at -98.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-5.00.
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