Kocaelispor

0 - 1

Fatih Karagümrük

Kocaelispor hosted Fatih Karagümrük in the Süper Lig, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Cinar (70'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$3377.49 (ROI: +66.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.76 to 2.47.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 55.3%, with a combined stake of $1292. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1382.44. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fatih Karagümrük 0. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fatih Karagümrük 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 30.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$240.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Fatih Karagümrük 0 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $3571. The sharpest edge was on Fatih Karagümrük 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 28.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1755.05.

- **Minute 17'** — Asian Handicap Fatih Karagümrük 0: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 45.5% (30.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fatih Karagümrük 0: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 48.8% (28.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fatih Karagümrük 0: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 48.8% (27.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 47.6% (21.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 68.5% vs market's 47.6% (20.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1382.44 (ROI: +107.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$883.45 (ROI: +49.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$871.60 (ROI: +49.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$240.00 (ROI: +120.0%)

Possession was 64–36 in Kocaelispor's favor. Kocaelispor had 7 shots (0 on target) versus Fatih Karagümrük's 6 (1 on target). Expected goals: Kocaelispor 0.24 — Fatih Karagümrük 0.31. Corners: 2-3.