Kayserispor

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Eyüpspor

Kayserispor hosted Eyüpspor in the Süper Lig, finishing 1-1. Goals: Luccas Claro (4'), F. Chalov (45'), I. Tuci (60'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$1666.20 (ROI: +18.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eyüpspor leading 0-1 at 54'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Eyüpspor 0 and Under 3.5 and Eyüpspor. Average expected value was 31.3%, with a combined stake of $5714. The sharpest edge was on Eyüpspor (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 82.5% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-1622.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Tuci's equalizer at 60'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 45.2% probability versus the market's implied 27.8% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.6. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2600.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 63' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Tuci's equalizer at 60'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Eyüpspor -0.5. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $2060. The sharpest edge was on Eyüpspor -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 41.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$325.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 89' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 89'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.

- **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Eyüpspor -0.5: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 44.4% (41.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Eyüpspor -0.5: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 44.4% (41.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Moneyline Eyüpspor: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 43.5% (39.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 60.0% (28.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 60.0% (28.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$823.35 (ROI: +19.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$679.35 (ROI: +15.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$163.50 (ROI: +23.4%)

Possession was 53%–51% in Kayserispor's favor. Kayserispor had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Eyüpspor's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Kayserispor 1.26 — Eyüpspor 0.76. Corners: 9-3.