Gençlerbirliği S.K.

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Kocaelispor

Gençlerbirliği S.K. hosted Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Mimaroglu (33' pen), M. Mimaroglu (34' pen). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 71% precision with a net result of +$4891.62 (ROI: +58.1%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.84; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 2.1; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.49 to 2.64.

### Wave 1 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 1-0 at 37'. M. Mimaroglu scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kocaelispor -1. Average expected value was 43.2%, with a combined stake of $2663. The sharpest edge was on Kocaelispor -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.8% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 41.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2334.35. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 1-0 at 43'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kocaelispor -0.5. Average expected value was 43.3%, with a combined stake of $619. The sharpest edge was on Kocaelispor -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 41.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1083.25. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 1-0 at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Kocaelispor -0.5. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Kocaelispor -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 42.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1468.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 1-0 at 59'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 84' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gençlerbirliği S.K. leading 1-0 at 84'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kocaelispor 0 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 28.3%, with a combined stake of $2637. The sharpest edge was on Kocaelispor 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 35.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1006.02.

- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Kocaelispor -0.5: AI saw 78.4% vs market's 36.4% (42.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Kocaelispor -1: AI saw 93.8% vs market's 52.6% (41.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Kocaelispor -0.5: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 36.4% (41.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Kocaelispor -1: AI saw 93.4% vs market's 52.6% (40.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Kocaelispor -1: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 54.1% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2229.65 (ROI: +58.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2081.97 (ROI: +53.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$580.00 (ROI: +82.9%)

Gençlerbirliği S.K. had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Kocaelispor's 2 (0 on target). Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1 — Kocaelispor 0.19.