Gaziantep FK

3 - 0

Kayserispor

Gaziantep FK hosted Kayserispor in the Süper Lig, finishing 3-0. Goals: M. Bayo (25'), D. Camara (45'), Y. Ait Bennasser (45' OG), K. Kozlowski (79' pen), D. Sorescu (80' pen). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 2 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-523.00 (ROI: -5.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 2.04.

### Wave 1 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 23'. 4 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Kayserispor 0 and Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 and Gaziantep FK and Under 3.5 and Kayserispor -1. Average expected value was 22.4%, with a combined stake of $9422. The sharpest edge was on Kayserispor -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 43.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 9 of 19 trades won, netting $-323.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gaziantep FK leading 1-0 at 40'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kayserispor -1. Average expected value was 43.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Kayserispor -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 40.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.

- **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Kayserispor -1: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 45.5% (43.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Kayserispor -1: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 45.5% (43.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Kayserispor -1: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 45.5% (43.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Kayserispor -1: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 50.6% (40.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Moneyline Gaziantep FK: AI saw 66.0% vs market's 45.5% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-39.00 (ROI: -1.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-39.00 (ROI: -1.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-45.00 (ROI: -1.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-400.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 55%–45% in Gaziantep FK's favor. Gaziantep FK had 18 shots (6 on target) versus Kayserispor's 17 (7 on target). Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 2.33 — Kayserispor 0.77. Corners: 5-3.