Galatasaray3 - 0Fenerbahçe
GalatasarayWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 25', 45', 48' — and still finish $-5980?
Match Overview
Galatasaray hosted Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig, finishing 3-0. Goals: V. Osimhen (40'), L. Torreira (56'), B. A. Yilmaz (67' pen), L. Torreira (83'). Fenerbahçe received a red card (Ederson, 62'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-5980.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.97; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fenerbahçe 0. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fenerbahçe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 26.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Fenerbahçe -0.5 and Fenerbahçe. Average expected value was 10.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Fenerbahçe -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Galatasaray leading 1-0 at 45'. V. Osimhen scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fenerbahçe -1. Average expected value was 52.6%, with a combined stake of $2780. The sharpest edge was on Fenerbahçe -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 50.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2780.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Galatasaray leading 1-0 at 48'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Fenerbahçe -1: AI saw 94.0% vs market's 43.5% (50.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Fenerbahçe -1: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 43.5% (50.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Fenerbahçe -1: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 43.5% (50.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Fenerbahçe 0: AI saw 64.0% vs market's 37.4% (26.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1508.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2008.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2264.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Galatasaray had 21 shots (8 on target) versus Fenerbahçe's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.92 — Fenerbahçe 0.03.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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