Eyüpspor4 - 0Rizespor
EyüpsporWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 15', 25' — and still finish +$1455?
Match Overview
Eyüpspor hosted Rizespor in the Süper Lig, finishing 4-0. Goals: U. Bozok (18' pen), M. Altunbas (29'), Lucas Calegari (45'), E. Akbaba (88'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$1455.15 (ROI: +35.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.91; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 2.66 to 2.55.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eyüpspor 0. Average expected value was 43.4%, with a combined stake of $1193. The sharpest edge was on Eyüpspor 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1085.63. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eyüpspor 0. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Eyüpspor 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 9.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$220.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Eyüpspor leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Rizespor -0.5 and Eyüpspor. Average expected value was 16.9%, with a combined stake of $2726. The sharpest edge was on Eyüpspor (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 77.6% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$149.52.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Eyüpspor: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 60.0% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Eyüpspor 0: AI saw 64.2% vs market's 52.4% (11.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1085.63 (ROI: +91.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$220.00 (ROI: +110.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$185.98 (ROI: +12.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-36.46 (ROI: -3.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in Eyüpspor's deficit. Eyüpspor had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Rizespor's 13 (4 on target). Expected goals: Eyüpspor 1.18 — Rizespor 0.69. Corners: 3-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +35.3% ROI. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$1085.63.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +35.3% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$1085.63.
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