Antalyaspor1 - 0Kocaelispor
AntalyasporWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 19', 40' — and still finish +$380?
Match Overview
Antalyaspor hosted Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig, finishing 1-0. Goals: S. Ballet (79'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 89% precision with a net result of +$380.38 (ROI: +102.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the home moneyline shortened from 1.6 to 1.45.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 41.0%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$53.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Kocaelispor -0.5. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 40.4%, with a combined stake of $308. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 24.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$330.48.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 48.1% (24.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 48.5% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 48.5% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 48.1% (22.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 48.5% (22.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$165.24 (ROI: +107.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$165.24 (ROI: +107.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$53.90 (ROI: +89.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41–59 in Antalyaspor's deficit. Antalyaspor had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Kocaelispor's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.32 — Kocaelispor 0.29. Corners: 2-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$165.24.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.3% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$165.24.
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