Antalyaspor0 - 0Alanyaspor
AntalyasporWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 65', 73' — and still finish $-3834?
Match Overview
Antalyaspor hosted Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig, finishing 0-0. Goals: N. Lima (63'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 15% precision with a net result of $-3834.00 (ROI: -47.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.13 to 2.86.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Alanyaspor and Alanyaspor 0 and Alanyaspor +0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $5065. The sharpest edge was on Alanyaspor 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.1% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 34.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 0 of 7 trades won, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Alanyaspor leading 0-1 at 65'. N. Lima scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 73'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$666.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alanyaspor 0: AI saw 92.1% vs market's 58.0% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alanyaspor 0: AI saw 91.5% vs market's 58.0% (33.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 65'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alanyaspor +0.5: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 41.2% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Alanyaspor +0.5: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 41.2% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-1667.00 (ROI: -44.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-1667.00 (ROI: -44.0%)
Match Statistics
Antalyaspor had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Alanyaspor's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -47.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-500.00.
A tough session at -47.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-500.00.
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