Udinese0 - 1Parma
UdineseWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 56' — and still finish +$1850?
Match Overview
Udinese hosted Parma in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: N. Elphege (51'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$1850.00 (ROI: +61.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 2.03 to 2.11.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Parma 0. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Parma 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.3% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1425.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Parma leading 0-1 at 56'. N. Elphege scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Udinese +0.5. Average expected value was 38.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 43.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$425.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +0.5: AI saw 84.8% vs market's 41.2% (43.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +0.5: AI saw 84.2% vs market's 41.2% (42.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 42.1% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 42.1% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Parma 0: AI saw 59.3% vs market's 41.2% (18.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$925.00 (ROI: +61.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$925.00 (ROI: +61.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–44% in Udinese's favor. Udinese had 12 shots (2 on target) versus Parma's 10 (1 on target). Expected goals: Udinese 0.94 — Parma 1.23. Corners: 9-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +61.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$925.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.6% / 33.7% / 25.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The most significant market inefficiency was the mispricing of Parma as the outright winner in the 1x2 market.
Udinese faced Parma, with the match concluding 0-1 in favor of the away side. In the 1x2 market, Udinese was priced as the favorite with an implied win probability of 44.64%, compared to Parma's 25%. The actual result, a 0-1 away win, indicates a significant market inefficiency where the outright winner was mispriced, offering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on Parma. The Asian Handicap closed at Udinese -0.25 (53.19% cover probability). Parma's 0-1 victory meant they easily covered the +0.25 spread, further underscoring the market's overestimation of Udinese's strength. This was a clear EV+ signal for Parma on the handicap. The Over/Under line was set at 2.25 goals, with the 'Under' showing an implied probability of 55.56%. With only 1 goal scored in the match, the market's read on the total goals was highly efficient, aligning perfectly with the actual outcome.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +61.7% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$925.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.