Udinese

0 - 1

Juventus

Udinese hosted Juventus in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: J. Boga (38'), F. Conceicao (70'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 59% precision with a net result of +$2743.00 (ROI: +33.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.51 to 6.7.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Juventus +1 and Juventus and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $4518. The sharpest edge was on Juventus +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 20.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-595.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 45'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese +0.5. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Udinese +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 10.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$712.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese +0.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1150.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 69' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 69'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Juventus +1.25. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Juventus +1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 17.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 78'. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Udinese +1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.6% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 26.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1676.00.

- **Minute 82'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +1: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 52.6% (26.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 79'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 54.1% (25.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +1: AI saw 77.4% vs market's 53.3% (24.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Juventus +1: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 45.5% (20.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Juventus +1: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 45.5% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$927.00 (ROI: +36.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$832.50 (ROI: +33.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$820.00 (ROI: +32.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$163.50 (ROI: +23.4%)

Possession was 43%–57% in Udinese's deficit. Udinese had 10 shots (2 on target) versus Juventus's 22 (8 on target). Expected goals: Udinese 0.66 — Juventus 3.08. Corners: 2-6.