Udinese3 - 0Fiorentina
Udinese1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Udinese hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: C. Kabasele (10'), K. Davis (63' pen), K. Davis (64' pen), A. Buksa (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$175.00 (ROI: +87.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.86; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.21 to 3.32.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Udinese leading 1-0 at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -0.5. Average expected value was 0.5%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$175.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$175.00 (ROI: +87.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 35%–65% in Udinese's deficit. Udinese had 9 shots (6 on target) versus Fiorentina's 11 (0 on target). Expected goals: Udinese 1.5 — Fiorentina 0.66. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.1% / 31.6% / 41.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of Udinese in the 1x2 market.
The Serie A fixture between Udinese and Fiorentina concluded with a decisive 3-0 home victory for Udinese. OddsFlow data analysis reveals significant market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, Udinese's implied win probability was a mere 30.12%, while Fiorentina was the clear market favorite at 41.15%. This represented a substantial undervaluation of Udinese, offering significant EV+ on the home win. The Asian Handicap market, with Fiorentina at -0.25 (53.76% probability to cover), also misjudged the fixture; Udinese's 3-0 triumph easily covered the alternative +0.25 line for the home side. Furthermore, the Over/Under 2.25 goals market saw 3 goals scored, confirming the slight market lean towards the Over (52.08% probability) as a strong value signal. The most pronounced error was the collective underestimation of Udinese's capability to secure an outright victory.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.5% ROI on 1 trades.
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