Udinese0 - 1Cremonese
UdineseWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 35', 48', 53', 62' — and still finish +$989?
Match Overview
Udinese hosted Cremonese in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: J. Vardy (9'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 86% precision with a net result of +$988.85 (ROI: +77.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2 to 2.54.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Udinese. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $41. The sharpest edge was on Udinese (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 53.3% probability versus the market's implied 39.4% — a 13.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.54. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-41.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cremonese leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese +0.5. Average expected value was 46.3%, with a combined stake of $253. The sharpest edge was on Udinese +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$347.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cremonese leading 0-1 at 48'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 34.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 23.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$416.40. ### Wave 4 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cremonese leading 0-1 at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Cremonese. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$114.20. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cremonese leading 0-1 at 62'. Cremonese made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $284. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 95.8% probability versus the market's implied 65.2% — a 30.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.533. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$151.37.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +0.5: AI saw 86.0% vs market's 42.1% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Udinese +0.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 42.1% (43.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 95.8% vs market's 65.2% (30.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 95.3% vs market's 65.2% (30.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 48.8% (23.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$516.54 (ROI: +83.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$513.30 (ROI: +83.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-41.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63–37 in Udinese's favor. Udinese had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Cremonese's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Udinese 0.3 — Cremonese 0.49. Corners: 5-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +77.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$516.54.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.25 goals.
The Serie A clash between Udinese and Cremonese concluded 0-1, with Cremonese securing an away victory. In the 1x2 market, Udinese was positioned as the slight favorite with a 39.37% implied win probability. However, Cremonese defied this market sentiment, delivering an outright win. The Asian Handicap, set at Udinese -0.25, saw Cremonese +0.25 favored to cover with a 55.87% probability; this proved accurate as Cremonese won the match. The most pronounced market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under 2.25 goals) market. Bookmakers leaned towards the Over, assigning a 51.81% probability. Yet, the match yielded only 1 goal, making the Under 2.25 a significant EV+ opportunity and a clear Value Signal.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +77.4% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$516.54.
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