Torino

2 - 1

Sassuolo

Torino hosted Sassuolo in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: K. Thorstvedt (51'), K. Thorstvedt (52'), G. Simeone (66'), M. Pedersen (71'). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 8 waves, achieving 18% precision with a net result of $-4717.90 (ROI: -43.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.3 to 2.65.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Sassuolo. Average expected value was 7.3%, with a combined stake of $400. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-400.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo 0. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Sassuolo 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.6% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 11.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Torino +0.5 and Sassuolo. Average expected value was 24.8%, with a combined stake of $3227. The sharpest edge was on Torino +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 41.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-477.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Simeone's equalizer at 66'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sassuolo -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 44.7%, with a combined stake of $2138. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 86.8% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 43.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1359.10.

- **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 43.5% (43.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 54.1% (43.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Torino +0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 36.4% (41.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 55.6% (41.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Torino +0.5: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 36.4% (35.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-400.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-948.40 (ROI: -25.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/5L/1V, $-1169.50 (ROI: -25.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2000.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 49–51 in Torino's deficit. Torino had 17 shots (3 on target) versus Sassuolo's 13 (7 on target). Expected goals: Torino 2.73 — Sassuolo 2.08. Corners: 7-4.