Torino2 - 2Juventus
TorinoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 14', 32', 52' — and still finish $-232?
Match Overview
Torino hosted Juventus in the Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: D. Vlahovic (24'), D. Vlahovic (54'), C. Casadei (60'), C. Adams (84'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 4 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-231.70 (ROI: -18.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.25 to 1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2; the home moneyline shortened from 8.02 to 6.84.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Torino +1. Average expected value was 6.7%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 14' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 14'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Juventus +1. Average expected value was 13.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Juventus +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.1% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 32'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Torino +1.5. Average expected value was 37.4%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Torino +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.5% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 35.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Juventus leading 0-1 at 52'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Torino +1 and Under 2.25 and Under 2.75. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $1045. The sharpest edge was on Torino +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 31.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 3 of 12 trades won, netting $-242.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Torino +1.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 50.0% (35.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Torino +1: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 37.4% (31.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Torino +1: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 37.4% (30.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Torino +1: AI saw 67.3% vs market's 37.4% (29.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 50.3% (21.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.80 (ROI: +108.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-80.50 (ROI: -23.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-80.50 (ROI: -23.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-81.50 (ROI: -23.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in Torino's deficit. Torino had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Juventus's 16 (4 on target). Expected goals: Torino 0.85 — Juventus 1.98. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -18.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$10.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 14.6% / 22.7% / 66.2% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a Draw.
The Serie A clash between Torino and Juventus concluded in a 2-2 draw. Our OddsFlow model identified significant **market inefficiencies**. In the **1x2 market**, Juventus was heavily favored with a 66.23% implied win probability, while the Draw was priced at only 22.68%. The actual 2-2 scoreline represents a clear **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on the Draw, indicating the market substantially underestimated this outcome. For the **Asian Handicap** market, with Juventus set at -1, the market favored Juventus to cover at 54.05%. However, the draw meant Torino (+1) covered, signalling another **EV+** opportunity against market sentiment. The **Goals Over/Under 2.75** market saw the Over priced at 50% probability. With 4 goals scored, the Over comfortably hit, suggesting this market was relatively efficient despite a slight lean towards the Under (52.36%). The primary **value signal** was the Draw in the 1x2 market.
A tough session at -18.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$10.80.
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