Torino1 - 2Bologna
TorinoWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 47' — and still finish +$1657?
Match Overview
Torino hosted Bologna in the Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: N. Moro (49'), N. Vlasic (62'), S. Castro (70'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1656.55 (ROI: +165.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 3.35 to 3.2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Bologna. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $839. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1468.09. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna +0.25. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $164. The sharpest edge was on Bologna +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 7.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$188.46.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1656.55 (ROI: +165.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Torino's deficit. Torino had 7 shots (2 on target) versus Bologna's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Torino 0.49 — Bologna 1.31. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +165.2% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.3% / 31.1% / 40.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.5 Goals, favoring the Under despite a 3-goal outcome.
In the Serie A clash between Torino and Bologna, which concluded 1-2, the market displayed notable inefficiencies. The 1x2 market correctly identified Bologna as the marginal favorite, with a 40.32% implied probability for an away win, which materialized. However, the Asian Handicap market showed a clear misjudgment. Despite Torino being favored to cover a -0.25 handicap (54.64% probability), Bologna, the underdog, secured a 1-2 victory, thus easily covering their +0.25 line. Furthermore, the Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals) presented the most significant value signal. The closing line heavily leaned towards Under 2.5 goals (53.48% probability), yet the match produced 3 goals, resulting in an Over. This indicates a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for those who backed Over 2.5 goals. The OddsFlow model flagged this as a prime example of market sentiment diverging from the true probability.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +165.2% ROI on 2 trades.
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