Sassuolo2 - 3Lecce
SassuoloWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-31 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Sassuolo hosted Lecce in the Serie A, finishing 2-3. Goals: W. Cheddira (14'), A. Lauriente (20'), W. Cheddira (25'), A. Pinamonti (82'), N. Stulic (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-31.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.87; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.32 to 2.73.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Sassuolo. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $31. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 46.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.6% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.73. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-31.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-31.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 74–26 in Sassuolo's favor. Sassuolo had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Lecce's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.83 — Lecce 0.62. Corners: 2-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.6% / 30.8% / 35.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Value on Over 2.25 Goals
Lecce secured a 3-2 away victory against Sassuolo in a high-scoring Serie A encounter. The 1x2 market initially showed Sassuolo as a marginal favorite with 36.63% implied win probability, while Lecce sat at 35.34%. The actual Lecce win indicates a market mispricing. For the Asian Handicap at 0, Sassuolo was slightly favored (51.81% to cover); however, Lecce's outright victory meant they comfortably covered the +0 handicap. Most notably, the Over/Under line closed at 2.25 goals, with the market leaning only slightly towards the Over (53.48%). The final tally of 5 goals significantly surpassed this line, pointing to a strong EV+ signal on the Over 2.25 goals. This fixture showcased a clear market undervaluation of goal-scoring potential.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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