Sassuolo2 - 1Cagliari
SassuoloWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 29', 51', 67', 71' — and still finish +$3649?
Match Overview
Sassuolo hosted Cagliari in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: S. Esposito (30' pen), U. Garcia (50'), A. Pinamonti (78'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$3648.65 (ROI: +47.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 2.09; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.96 to 2.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari 0. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 19.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Sassuolo +0.5 and Sassuolo and Over 2.5 and Cagliari and Draw. Average expected value was 12.1%, with a combined stake of $4727. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 7 of 9 trades won, netting +$5148.65. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after U. Garcia's equalizer at 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.9% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 8.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 67'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari -1. Average expected value was 47.1%, with a combined stake of $725. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 45.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 71'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari -1. Average expected value was 48.4%, with a combined stake of $745. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 46.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 50.6% (46.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -1: AI saw 95.8% vs market's 50.6% (45.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +0.5: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 51.3% (21.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +0.5: AI saw 72.3% vs market's 51.3% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 61.1% vs market's 42.1% (19.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/3L/1V, +$1857.40 (ROI: +42.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1791.25 (ROI: +53.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Sassuolo's deficit. Sassuolo had 1 shots (0 on target) versus Cagliari's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Sassuolo 0.04 — Cagliari 0.45.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1857.40.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.1% / 32.0% / 23.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 47.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Sassuolo -0.5 in the Asian Handicap.
In the Serie A fixture between Sassuolo and Cagliari, Sassuolo secured a 2-1 victory. The 1x2 market correctly identified Sassuolo as the market favorite with an implied win probability of 48.08%. The primary market inefficiency was observed in the Asian Handicap market. With a closing line of Sassuolo -0.5, the market assigned a 47.85% probability for Sassuolo to cover. However, Sassuolo's 2-1 win meant they comfortably covered the spread, indicating clear Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors backing Sassuolo -0.5. The Totals market, with a line of 2.25 goals, correctly leaned towards the Over (51.81% probability), as the match concluded with 3 total goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.4% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1857.40.
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