Sassuolo

0 - 1

Bologna

Sassuolo hosted Bologna in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: T. Dallinga (6'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 5 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$3792.00 (ROI: +72.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.74 to 2.6.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bologna leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo +0.5. Average expected value was 40.6%, with a combined stake of $1847. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2031.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bologna leading 0-1 at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna and Bologna 0. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Bologna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$763.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bologna leading 0-1 at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna 0. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Bologna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 9.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bologna leading 0-1 at 64'. Sassuolo made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo +1. Average expected value was 26.8%, with a combined stake of $719. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 24.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$503.30. ### Wave 5 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bologna leading 0-1 at 71'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo +1. Average expected value was 26.3%, with a combined stake of $658. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 24.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$493.50.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +0.5: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 47.6% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +0.5: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 47.6% (37.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +1: AI saw 83.3% vs market's 58.8% (24.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo +1: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 57.1% (24.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1920.80 (ROI: +72.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1871.20 (ROI: +72.5%)

Possession was 54%–46% in Sassuolo's favor. Sassuolo had 9 shots (4 on target) versus Bologna's 16 (3 on target). Expected goals: Sassuolo 0.53 — Bologna 0.71. Corners: 7-4.