Sassuolo2 - 1Atalanta
SassuoloWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-3780 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Sassuolo hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: I. Kone (23'), I. Kone (24'), K. Thorstvedt (69'), Y. Musah (88'). Sassuolo received a red card (A. Pinamonti, 16'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3780.42 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 3.97 to 3.82.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sassuolo leading 1-0 at 38'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Atalanta. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $3780. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-3780.42.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-3780.42 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 24%–76% in Sassuolo's deficit. Sassuolo had 7 shots (5 on target) versus Atalanta's 25 (7 on target). Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.52 — Atalanta 2.96. Corners: 3-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.2% / 29.1% / 47.6% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 47.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Sassuolo's win probability.
The match between Sassuolo and Atalanta concluded with a 2-1 victory for the home side. The 1x2 market presented a significant inefficiency, as Atalanta was the clear favorite with an implied win probability of 47.62%, while Sassuolo's outright win was priced at a low 26.18%. Sassuolo's victory represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors backing the underdog. In the Handicap market, the line was set at 0.5, favoring Atalanta (-0.5). However, Sassuolo (+0.5) covering was expected at 54.64%, which indeed occurred with their 2-1 win. The Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals) correctly leaned towards the Over with a 51.81% probability, as the match produced 3 goals.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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