Pisa0 - 1Torino
PisaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 26', 47', 55', 81' — and still finish +$1342?
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: C. Adams (80'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 62% precision with a net result of +$1341.80 (ROI: +20.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 2.16; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2.06; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.82 to 3.17.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Torino 0 and Over 1.5 and Torino. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $3598. The sharpest edge was on Torino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.4% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 16.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$795.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$571.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 81' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Torino leading 0-1 at 81'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Pisa +1. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Pisa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$975.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 50.6% (30.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 50.6% (30.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 70.4% vs market's 54.1% (16.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 54.1% (16.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 54.1% (15.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1107.25 (ROI: +27.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$234.55 (ROI: +9.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Pisa's deficit. Pisa had 6 shots (0 on target) versus Torino's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: Pisa 0.27 — Torino 1.84. Corners: 1-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1107.25.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.6% / 33.7% / 38.2% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 56.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market exhibited high efficiency across all key betting markets.
Pisa hosted Torino, concluding in a 0-1 victory for the away side. In the 1x2 market, Torino was priced as the slight favorite with an implied probability of 38.17%, which aligned with the eventual away win. The Asian Handicap line was set at 0, with Torino holding a 56.18% probability to cover, a forecast validated by their 1-0 triumph. For the Totals market, the closing line was 2.25 goals, with a distinct market lean towards the Under at 54.35%. The match saw only 1 goal, confirming the Under. Overall, the market exhibited strong efficiency across all key betting facets, with probabilities accurately reflecting the match outcome. OddsFlow analysis indicates no significant Closing Line Value divergence, suggesting bookmakers were highly accurate.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.3% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1107.25.
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