Pisa1 - 3Sassuolo
PisaWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-506 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Sassuolo in the Serie A, finishing 1-3. Goals: D. Berardi (25'), A. Caracciolo (45' OG), M. Aebischer (51'), I. Kone (58'), I. Kone (59'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-505.74 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2.1; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.98 to 3.15.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Sassuolo leading 1-3 at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo +0.75. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $506. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-505.74.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-505.74 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Pisa's favor. Pisa had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Sassuolo's 20 (5 on target). Expected goals: Pisa 0.79 — Sassuolo 1.58. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.8% / 32.3% / 39.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 45.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Clear Over Value
The match between Pisa and Sassuolo concluded with a 1-3 scoreline, a clear away victory for Sassuolo. The 1x2 market correctly identified Sassuolo as the **market favorite**, with an implied probability of 39.06%. While the **Asian Handicap** line of 0.25 saw the market lean towards Pisa (+0.25 @ 56.18%), Sassuolo comfortably covered this spread by winning with a two-goal margin. The most significant **market inefficiency** was found in the **Totals market**. Despite a closing line of 2.25 goals, the market heavily favored the **Under** with a 54.64% probability. The match, however, produced a total of 4 goals, resulting in a strong **Over** outcome. This presented a clear **EV+ opportunity** for astute bettors, indicating a significant **Value Signal** where the bookmakers' expectations were demonstrably off.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.