Pisa0 - 3Napoli
Pisa2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Napoli in the Serie A, finishing 0-3. Goals: S. McTominay (21'), A. Rrahmani (27'), R. Hojlund (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$117.40 (ROI: +76.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.03; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.87 to 8.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli +1. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $153. The sharpest edge was on Napoli +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$117.40.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$117.40 (ROI: +76.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 23–77 in Pisa's deficit. Pisa had 4 shots (2 on target) versus Napoli's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Pisa 0.8 — Napoli 0.72. Corners: 1-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.7% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 11.3% / 20.3% / 71.9% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Over 2.75 goals line, presenting a strong value signal for the 'Over'.
Pisa suffered a 0-3 home defeat against Napoli in Serie A. The 1x2 Market accurately priced Napoli as heavy favorites at 71.94% win probability, which materialized with their dominant 3-0 victory. No significant 1x2 market inefficiency detected here. In the Handicap Market, Napoli was offered at a -1.25 Asian Handicap with a 52.63% implied probability to cover. Their convincing 3-goal win (0-3) saw them easily cover the spread, suggesting a potential Closing Line Value (CLV) on Napoli -1.25. The Totals Market (Over/Under) closed at 2.75 goals, with the market leaning towards the 'Under' (54.05% probability). However, the match produced 3 goals, hitting the 'Over'. This represents a clear market inefficiency; the OddsFlow model identified value on Over 2.75 goals, contrary to the prevailing market sentiment.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.7% ROI on 2 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.