Pisa1 - 2Lecce
PisaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 35', 42', 54' — and still finish $-790?
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Lecce in the Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: L. Banda (52'), M. Leris (56'), M. Leris (57'), W. Cheddira (65'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-790.40 (ROI: -11.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.79 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.63 to 3.61.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Lecce 0. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $1767. The sharpest edge was on Lecce 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 15.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$513.60. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lecce leading 0-1 at 54'. L. Banda scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Pisa +1 and Under 2.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$696.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 40.0% (40.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 40.0% (39.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 47.1% (32.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 47.1% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Lecce 0: AI saw 71.1% vs market's 55.6% (15.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$160.00 (ROI: +80.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-232.00 (ROI: -7.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-718.40 (ROI: -20.3%)
Match Statistics
Pisa had 1 shots (1 on target) versus Lecce's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -11.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$160.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.7% / 31.9% / 43.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Over 2.0 Goals.
Lecce secured a 2-1 away victory against Pisa in Serie A. The 1x2 market correctly identified Lecce as the market favorite with a 43.1% implied probability of winning. In the Asian Handicap market, the line was set at 0.25. While Pisa +0.25 was marginally favored (51.28%), Lecce (-0.25) ultimately covered the spread with their one-goal winning margin. The most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the closing line for Over/Under 2.0 goals showing a slight lean towards the Under (51.81% probability), the match ultimately produced 3 goals, resulting in the Over 2.0 being hit. This represents a clear Value Signal on Over 2.0 Goals, where the market failed to accurately price the higher goal probability.
A tough session at -11.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$160.00.
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